Commodities

Chinese factory activity contracted for fourth straight month, suppressing USOIL today, but heads towards it best month in over a year as authorities have pledged stimulus measure

China’s Politburo pledged to boost the economic recovery on Monday, following months of disappointing data, helping USOil enter its fifth straight profitable week

After a pause in June, it is expected that the Federal Reserve hikes by 25bps on Wednesday, 26 July. This is because although inflation is moderating, it is well above target, and the job market is still tight. The CME FedWatch tool has the probability of the rate increase at close to 100%.

Commodities are starting to look interesting again. This after a subdued period for the sector. We note that between 21 June 2022 and 3 July 2023, the Thomson Reuters/Jeffries CRB index moved in a southeasterly direction. During this period, the index’s RSI remained largely under 50, which is the bearish side of the indicator.

The breakout from the falling wedge pattern coincides with a moderation in inflation in the US. Previous Federal Reserve rate hikes are still working themselves through the transmission mechanism. A possible scenario is that July is the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve’s current tightening cycle. If so, this may provide a tailwind, and the precious metal could end 2023 on a strong note, heading towards the measured move’s…

The commodity slips today, as the latest batch of economic data form the world’s biggest importer of oil, disappointed markets once again

The pledge by Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase oil supply cuts is having a positive effect on the UKOil weekly price chart. It suggests a possible change in its primary trend.

Copper prices fall as the string of poor Chinese economic data continued today, with producer prices falling deeper into deflation territory in June, while consumer inflation was non-existent

UKOil is positioned in a bullish channel.

XAUUSD charted a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks from the end of October last year to the end of April this year. This put gold into a defined uptrend. However, from May, this pattern started to show cracks, and eventually a lower trough (LT) was charted. This, in effect ended the pattern of higher troughs followed by higher peaks, and as such ended the precious metal’s uptrend.

The commodity rejected key technicals after the surprisingly aggressive rate hike by the Bank of England, looking past recent cuts by China’s central bank to support the economic recovery