Commodities

Country Garden’s default warning aggravated concerns over China’s property sector, but authorities announced action to lower mortgages, helping copper prices

UKOil has pushed into its bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands. Its daily RSI is also above 50, which is the bullish side of the indicator. If these positions are held, there will be an underlying support for UKOil.

The commodity continues the pullback from its 2023 highs on China and Fed woes, but holds crucial technical levels

Gold has a robust inverse relationship to the 10-year real yield. The current correlation coefficient on the daily timeframe is -90%. Yesterday, the real yield declined by 6.57%, which saw the yellow metal respond and appreciate on the day.

The commodity heads towards its first losing week in around two months, weighed by fears over the Fed’s policy outlook and China’s economy

Some weakness is evident in the weekly gold chart. A lower peak has charted. If a lower trough follows, the yellow metal will be in a defined downtrend on a weekly basis. The RSI has dipped below 50, which does suggest that there is an underlying bearish momentum. The longer it maintains under 50, the more pressure will be applied to the gold price.

China’s consumer inflation fell to negative territory as today’s data showed, but Copper rises on hopes for further stimulus by authorities

Gold's daily chart has pulled back to a confluence of support.

Chinese factory activity contracted for fourth straight month, suppressing USOIL today, but heads towards it best month in over a year as authorities have pledged stimulus measure

China’s Politburo pledged to boost the economic recovery on Monday, following months of disappointing data, helping USOil enter its fifth straight profitable week

After a pause in June, it is expected that the Federal Reserve hikes by 25bps on Wednesday, 26 July. This is because although inflation is moderating, it is well above target, and the job market is still tight. The CME FedWatch tool has the probability of the rate increase at close to 100%.