Russell Shor

Gold, being a haven and considered a store of value, maintains a bid as geopolitical tensions escalate following further sanctions on Russia.

Yesterday's price action sets up for potentially bullish "buy the dip" action today.

Immediate overhead resistance is currently keeping the dollar in check.

This escalation to military conflict has led to a risk-off sentiment in the financial markets.

The weekly charts below show the: * US02-Yr Treasury (top). * US10-Yr Treasury (middle). * 10/02 Yield curve (bottom). The spread between the 10/02 has declined to 0.371%. I.e., the yield curve has flattened remarkably since the middle of last year (red rectangle). The reason is the sharp increase in the US02-Yr (blue rectangle) vs. the shallower incline of the US10-Yr note (green rectangle). The steepness of the shorter maturity…

Longer-term charts The below show the daily charts of FXCM's CFDs for the DJI (US30), SPX (SPX500), and the NDX (NAS100). The US30 is on the left, the SPX500 in the middle, and the NAS100 on the right. All three indexes are trading in their respective weak areas, between the lower blue and lower red bands. The prevailing reason is a general risk-off sentiment due to the tensions between Russia…

Oil Technicals Oil prices have appreciated as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine have intensified. The chart on the left below shows the USOil weekly heikin ashi chart. These candles are trend-following indicators and are trading in USOil's strength zone, between the upper blue and red bands. I.e., the two trend-following systems are reinforcing one another. The weekly RSI is within regular readings, implying that there is still potential scope…

The top chart below is the monthly relative strength of FXCM's CFDs for the DJI and NDX, i.e., US30/NAS100 (RS). The analysis starting point is at the dashed red vertical line dated 02 September 2002. The middle chart shows the RSI for the RS. Finally, the bottom chart is the US 10-Yr Treasury note with a 12-month simple moving average overlay. There are several observations to be made: * The…

USDOLLAR Weekly Trend The chart below shows FXCM's dollar basket, USDOLLAR. First, price indicates a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks, which is the classical definition of an uptrend. Next, we assess if the candle ending 11 Feb is the next higher trough in the series (HT?). To this end, last week's candle (green arrow) did not close above the aqua horizontal, which is our requirement for a…

Today's NFP trade ended with a 6.9 pip loss. However, the SL was reduced from 20 pips of risk to 6.9 pips. After the initial kick, volatility declined for a slow grind into the conclusion.