UKOil retraces after hitting a high of $133/barrel last week
In a previous article, we asked whether last week's gap open for oil was a runaway or an exhaustion gap? Below we consider the 4-hour chart of FXCM's CFD for Brent, UKOil. It seems to be of the exhaustion variety, as it has now closed. Moreover, we have included a triple moving average to gauge current sentiment. The green shorter-term moving average (SMA) is below the orange intermediate SMA, and the orange intermediate SMA is below the red longer-term SMA.
We also note that the red SMA has turned down (black ellipse). This formation is bearish. As long as it holds, the momentum is biased to the downside, and stagflation fears diminish. However, this is highly dependent on the geopolitics surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The two countries are due to resume peace talks, and any escalation is likely to disrupt the downside flow of the SMAs. Ukraine is looking to secure a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.
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Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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