XAU/USD Upbeat as the G7 Leaders Plan to Ban Russian Gold Imports
XAU/USD Analysis
The G7 is a group of advanced economies, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. Leaders of the group kicked-off their three-day gathering on Sunday, under the German presidency, in the Bavarian Alps.
The group intends to impose an embargo on gold imports from Russia, according to the US President, as leaders seek to tighten sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. President Biden tweeted over the weekend, that "Together, the G7 will announce that we will ban the import of Russian gold, a major export that rakes in tens of billions of dollars for Russia" [1]
Russia is on the world's top producers of the yellow metal, having ranked second behind China in 2021, with 330.9 tonnes, according the World Gold Council. [2]
Meanwhile, markets remains on edge around the prospects of stagflation, as the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that "Stagflation risks loom large, owing to high inflation, the war in Ukraine and slower growth in China", in its 2022 Annual Report. [3]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth forecast for the US, seeing GDP at 2.9% this year, expecting the economy to "narrowly avoid a recession" in 2022-2023. [4]
XAU/USD comes from two losing weeks, being sequestered by key technical levels since-late May, but news around the G7 ban helped gold open higher today and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to move above the 50 mark.
This may provide the impetus for another push toward the 1,867-9 region, which includes the 38.2% Fibonacci of the April High/May Low drop and the descending trendline from the 2022 high. Further advance that would challenge the 50% Fibonacci though, seems like a tall order at this point.
Despite the strong start to the week, XAU/USD has rejected the aforementioned region multiple times recently, and the technical landscape is unfriendly, since the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 200Days EMA also loom.
XAU/USD remains vulnerable to this year's lows (1,780), especially if 38.2% Fibonacci continues to hold, although chances of this seem to have now diminished in the short-term. The next support is seen at 1,752.
From a relatively light economic calendar today, markets await US Durable Goods.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 27 Jun 2022 https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1540945453998436353 | |
| Retrieved 27 Jun 2022 https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-production-by-country | |
| Retrieved 27 Jun 2022 https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2022e.pdf | |
| Retrieved 23 Sep 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/06/24/mcs062422-united-states-of-america-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission |
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