US10 Yr Yields Turning Bullish Into 2022


The top chart shows the weekly US10 Yr. treasury. We have added moving averages as a measuring mechanism for yield appreciation. The green ellipse indicates that the quicker green moving average is near to crossing above the slower orange moving average. If this happens, and angle and separation develop, the odds favour further appreciation in the rate. The blue dashed vertical marks the time of the previous bullish cross (aqua ellipse), on 20 September 2021. Since then, the FXCM USDOLLAR basket has been moving upwards (second candle chart). Below that is the correlation coefficient between the US10Y yield and the USDOLLAR instrument. Since the blue dashed vertical, the correlation between the two has moved from negative to positive (blue rectangle). This suggests that market participants see yield appreciation as a potential determinant for the greenback. This is sensical given that fixed-income investors will buy US treasuries in dollars, and a rising yield will be attractive to income investors. The current correlation is at 0.23. However, if the treasury's moving averages cross, and the correlation moves towards 1 as we move into Q1 of the new year, the USDOLLAR will likely be bid into 2022 as well.


Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Feautured Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.