EUR/USD – H1
The first day of the year started with some rather heavy selling, amidst holiday thinned trading and fresh fears around China's property market which worked in the Dollar's benefit.
The pair trades in negative territory but manages to defend the EMA100 (black line) at the start of the European trading, which keeps immediate bias on the upside.
It comes from two profitable weeks and a late Friday surge that led to a close above 1.1380 (38.2% Fibonacci of the October/November drop) which creates aspirations for new highs. However, we remain unconvinced of its upward prospects and a catalyst would be required for challenging 1.1439-60 area.
Broader downtrend remains intact though, as the recent recovery has been slow and limited. As long as it remains in negative territory, the Eurodollar is vulnerable to sub-1.1300 moves, although a breach of the ascending trend-line from November's 2021 lows (at around 1.1250) will require more effort.
After mostly unsurprising European PMIs, markets will now turn to those of the US, while caution around holiday trading conditions is still needed, as London is closed.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.