EUR/USD Posts 5-Year Lows, Heads Towards Another Losing Month


Risk Factors Weigh

There are various risk sources that weigh on sentiment, with the latest one coming from Gazprom, as the Russian energy firm announced earlier today that it will fully hault gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. [1]

This action was taken because the two countries did not pay in Rubles for their gas imports, in the aftermath of last month relevant demand by Russian President Putin. [2]

Russian-Western tensions are elevated after Germany announced that it will be supplying tanks to Ukraine [3], while Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov talked of serious danger of nuclear conflict [4].

Fed-ECB Policy Differential

The European Central Bank has been moving towards a more hawkish direction, as it expects to conclude the asset purchase program (APP) in Q3 and increase rates after that. Last week, Vice-President de Guindos said that the APP should end in July and did not rule out rate liftoff in the same month, when asked in an interview with Bloomberg. [5]

However, the Fed is far ahead, since it has already hiked rates last month by 25 basis and has since been preparing markets for a larger adjustment in next week's meeting. Chair Powell alluded to that last Thursday, noting that "I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting" in an IMF panel. [6]

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Furthermore, the US central bank has already concluded its asset purchases and gears up for the reduction of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, potential as early as May.

EUR/USD Analysis

The above factors weigh on the common currency, which sheds around 4% on the month against the greenback, runs its fifth straight losing day and posts five year lows today. This brings 1.0494-56 in the spotlight, but it may be early for a breach that would expose it to the 2017 multi-year low (1.0339).

From a technical prospective, the move is overextended and this could help the pair catch a breath and return back above mid-1.0600s, but a strong catalyst will be required for a rebound that would challenge 1.0805.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.



Retrieved 27 Apr 2022


Retrieved 27 Apr 2022


Retrieved 27 Apr 2022


Retrieved 27 Apr 2022


Retrieved 27 Apr 2022


Retrieved 26 Nov 2022


Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.

Risk Warning: Our service includes products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losses in excess of your deposited funds. The products may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}