Last week’s FOMC minutes indicate a small recession near year end. Headline CPI declined but core inched up slightly. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations came in higher than previous. China’s GDP beat forecast and UK inflation expected to decrease into single digits. Other regions reporting CPI include Canada, EU, and Japan. Friday sees flash PMIs reported. Banks kicked off Q1 earnings last week with Netflix and Tesla to release this…

The Chinese GDP grew by 4.5% y/y in the first quarter, which along with other upbeat data today, show that the economic recovery maintains its momentum

In March, retail sales decreased by 1%, surpassing economists' predictions for a 0.4% decline. This suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of a more challenging economic climate. There was a decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. This suggests that higher interest rates are causing the economy to lose momentum at the end of the first quarter. The previous month's data was revised, indicating that retail…

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the soft US CPI headline inflation that sends EUR/USD higher, Fed minutes which showed the projection of a recession, the new earnings season that gets underway and more

The non-farm employment change shows that the labour market is slowing but still resilient. This week will see CPI and retail sales released. Tightening seems to be making an impact. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday with Australian employment data and UK GDP and industrial production out on Thursday. Q1 earning seasons is set to kick off this week with airlines and banks.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the recent poor US jobs data ahead of Friday’s NFPs, the 50 bps rate hike by the Reserve bank of New Zealand and more

The central bank of New Zealand stayed the course with another 50 basis points rate hike, against baseline expectations for a smaller move, boosting the Kiwi

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on OPEC’s surprise oil production cuts that sent prices higher, the pause in the tightening cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia and more

The central bank of Australia decided today to leave rates unchanged at 3.6%, following ten straight hikes since the May 2021 lift-off, putting AUD/USD under pressure

As PCE shows signs of moderation, OPEC+ announces supply cut of more than 1m barrels per day from May. FXCM senior market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras discuss its potential impact on inflation. This Friday sees the NFP release and the RBA and RBNZ are due to announce expected rate hikes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. This week also has PMI releases. Please join us for the conversation.

It fell to 50, which separates expansion from contraction for February, from 51.60, which was an eight-month high.