Global Markets

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the latest around the US debt ceiling, the hot PCE inflation data that added to the hawkish repricing around the Fed’s rate path and more

Last week saw inflation coming in ahead of expectations. This has led to markets repricing the path of Fed hikes. US GDP came in better that expected but German GDP reflects technical recession. After a 90-minute call on Saturday, there is a debt ceiling deal which needs to be ratified by both Houses. Non-Farm Payrolls will be released this Friday, providing the next clue for rates. Listen in for these…

The core PCE was higher than the consensus of 4.6% y/y, printing at 4.7% y/y. The previous reading was 4.6% y/y. On a monthly basis, it came in at 0.4% (4.9% - annualised), higher than the 0.3% expected.

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the latest around the US debt ceiling and Fed-speak, the dovish shock by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the UK inflation data that keeps pressure for more rate hikes, NVIDIA’s AI-driven strong quarterly report and more

Following the negotiations over the debt ceiling, Fitch Ratings has expressed concern regarding the United States' debt, resulting in a placement of the nation's highest-rated bonds on a "Rating Watch Negative."

The German economy contracted over the last two quarters, which is defined as a technical recession. Q1 GDP, revised a second time, came in at -0.3%. This follows Q4 2022’s GDP of -0.5%. Germany has faced considerable challenges following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent choice made by European leaders to sever relations with Moscow.

The central bank of New Zealand increased rates to 5.5% today as anticipated, but expects this to have marked the peak, in a dovish shift against market expectations for more tightening ahead

During the last policy meeting, Fed officials reached a unanimous decision to raise interest rates, despite considerable deliberation on whether it would be wiser to pause the tightening efforts. The minutes of the FOMC’s meeting held on 2-3 May, will be released today, and will provide valuable insights into the extent of the officials' consideration of maintaining interest rates and whether any committee members advocated for a pause.

Headline CPI inflation decelerated to 8.7% y/y in the first sub-10% print since August, as today’s data showed, but Core inflation rose to the highest in thirty one years

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the developments around the US debt ceiling as we move closer to the estimated deadline, the latest Fed commentary and more

On Friday, during a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell suggested that rates may not climb as much as expected due to credit tightening. Other Fed speakers suggest that FOMC members are developing diverging views. China data hints at a slowing momentum in recovery and EU CPI is still too high. This week sees two more inflation data points – core PCE on Friday and UK inflation on Wednesday. Wednesday will…