Oil markets sell off as odds for recession shorten
Oil capitulates as market ponders demand destruction.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Oil capitulates as market ponders demand destruction.
The Nasdaq is a growth index. This classification is notable because rising interest rates hit the growth side of the market hardest. So whether or not we have seen most of the move in yields is an important question? For example, a base will suggest possible value. However, this is not yet the case; technically speaking, the Nasdaq is in a very precarious position.
Last week saw quarterly GDP contracts and PCE show signs of moderation. Moreover, manufacturing missed its forecast. All of a sudden, the narrative focuses on recession. Nik and Russ discuss if the Fed's focus will change in Q3. The RBA looks to deliver further hikes, and Wednesday sees the release of the FOMC's minutes from its June meeting.
The USDOLLAR is overbought. This excess may suggest that the Fed does not have as much room to be aggressive as the market has discounted.
Shorts may target the GER30 Friday rally.
EURUSD capitulation signs after a bullish day yesterday.
The SEC has rejected the Grayscale Investments application to turn its $13bn Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Given the easy access to ETFs, this is considered a massive blow to the crypto industry. This repudiation comes despite Grayscale Investments retaining the services of Donald Verilli Jr., a top White House Lawyer from the Obama administration, to push for the approval
Given the vast chasm between the SNB and Fed, we believe the widening 10-year spread to be significant. Our interpretation is that the market is growing wary of recession risk in the US. Moreover, the CHF has traditionally been regarded as a haven and is likely a beneficiary of the market concerns. Therefore, USDCHF will be a currency pair to keep an eye on. However, we urge caution as the…
Oil bid as OPEC and OPEC+ set to meet over the next two days.
Real yields exert pressure on the pressure metal. As the Fed hiking cycle continues, this pressure may keep up in the near-to-medium term if the correlation holds.
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