Bitcoin’s recent rally may be targeted on Fed hawkishness
The bitcoin rally may run into trouble if the Fed doesn't pivot.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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The bitcoin rally may run into trouble if the Fed doesn't pivot.
The EURUSD is rolling over as the daily looks to complete a continuation pattern.
Fed officials start preparing market for further rate hikes.
Gold is inversely related to real rates in the current market environment. This connection may suggest that the recent gold appreciation is a rally in a broader downtrend.
The tech-heavy NAS100 is feeling the pressure as China/US tensions flare over House Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.
The 10-yr real rate is just 7bps from 0 (black line chart), and the 5-yr is 7bps below 0 (red line chart). Given that interest rates are included in the denominator of the time value of money, this deterioration is supportive of present values. I.e. it is acting against the whims and desires of the Fed's stated intention of controlling inflation.
The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and cancelled forward guidance. GDP indicates a technical recession, and US inflation is still ticking at the highest level in 40 years. The Eurozone shows resilience but with savage inflation on its side of the pond. This week the BoE and RBA will hike rates, but there is scope for surprises. NFP Friday has a forecast of 250K jobs created in July. Yet, the…
The GER30 shows relative bullishness on its weekly chart.
As the real yield has diminished, the NAS100 has found support.
Despite the surprise 50bps hike, market interpretation of relative central bank aggressiveness will be critical in the EURUSD direction
The household sector is showing weakness from numerous economic indicators.
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