Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Inflation is still in focus as the US printed at 9.1% - the fastest pace since 1981. Bank of Canada surprises with 100bps to front load hikes due to inflationary concerns. Waller and Bullard talk down hike expectation to 75bps from 100bps. Fed funds rate has 75bps at 70% for 27 July hike. Bank earnings disappoint; this week, NFLX and Tesla kick off the tech side. Housing data is in…
Considering the weekly timeframe, FXCM's Nasdaq CFD, NAS100, shows a decline (top chart) as the real interest rate appreciates (middle chart). As risk increases, capital will rotate out of the risk asset into a safer income-yielding investment. Moreover, the NAS100's required rate of return has increased, and its present value has adjusted downwards.
Bitcoin's strength is taking place within a broader downtrend. This suggests the current rally may fade at resistance.
Retail sales increase on a nominal basis but slow on a real basis.
As Q2 earnings season officially starts, we consider two SPX500 daily charts.
The weekly gold charted a series of lower peaks (LP) followed by lower troughs (LT). Thus, XAUUSD is trending down on a primary basis. Therefore, in our view, the week of Monday, 18 April (black dashed vertical) was a critical period (T1) for the precious metal, marking its first LP.
The BoC surprised with a 100bps hike. The market was expecting 75bps, which was already a pivot from an earlier expectation of 50bps.
A policy cannot deal with the supply shocks impacting the economy. Market participants are aware of this and will continue looking for a return commensurate with the heightened risk. In this environment of uncertainty, the price is still adjusting. Thus it seems, for the time being, they may have settled on "cash is king."
Weekly cryptocurrency webinar.
The Bollinger bands are squeezing ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. This should make crypto bulls very nervous.
EURUSD hit parity earlier in the day. However, the underlying fundamentals may drive it even lower.
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