Russell Shor

Earlier, Premier Li Keqiang commented that China faces downward pressure. He then suggested tax cuts and a reduction in bank fees to stimulate small and medium-sized businesses. These come after some worrying metrics out of China. Manufacturing has slumped in 2021 and the NBS Manufacturing PMI has recorded two months in a row under 50, which implies contraction: China NBS Manufacturing PMI Past performance is not an indicator of future…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The NAS100 has had a terrific run since 12 October (blue vertical). From current close to low the index has appreciated about 9.5%. We refer to our previous article that considered the relative strength between the NAS100 and US30, which indicated that the NAS100 is generally inversely related to interest rates. Given this, the FOMC statement release and press conference today…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The above shows FXCM's USDOLLAR basket on a weekly chart. Given the expectations of a tapering announcement from the FOMC statement today, the analysis here is important. Last week's candle is a potential swing low reference candle (aqua arrow). To be considered as such, this week's candle will need to close above the reference candle's high (aqua horizontal line). The FOMC…

Please note that past performance is not an indicator of future results. The top chart shows the weekly relative strength of FXCM's Nasdaq contract, the NAS100, to its Dow Industrials proxy, the US30. A movement to the northeast suggests outperformance by the NAS100 and a movement to the southeast suggests outperformance by the US30. The lower chart shows the weekly US10Y yield. Both charts have a black 30-week simple moving…

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. After a 2020 which saw the greenback's value decline significantly (off the back of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing), 2021 has seen the currency stabilise and begin to appreciate. The USDOLLAR has now shifted up a gear. Technically speaking there are a number of positives to the weekly chart above. The USDOLLAR has moved above its black 30-week…

Although the UK100 is off of its pandemic lows it has lagged other indexes such as the GER30 and SPX500. Nevertheless, there are certainly companies which are performing well with potential upside ahead. In this article we look at 4 companies that either have good fundamental underpinnings, share price momentum, or significant company changes that may unlock shareholder value. Moreover, the following 4 companies are well placed to take advantage…

The Fed is currently injecting $120bn into the economy every month via its quantitative easing programme. It is doing this by buying $80bn of Treasuries and $40bn of agency mortgage-backed securities and is committed to this until it has achieved "substantial further progress" on meeting its mandates of price stability and full employment. However, substantial progress does seem to have been made in this regard. The payrolls number for July…

The ECB Changes Monetary Policy Strategy to Symmetric Target On 8 July the ECB announced its new monetary policy strategy of symmetric 2% inflation over the medium term. The target is symmetric in that any deviation, be it positive or negative, is regarded as "equally undesirable." Market participants were eager to learn more and there was a keen focus on the ECB statement and President's Lagarde's press conference on 22…

Governments utilise a mix of spending and taxation to meet economic objectives. This is typically referred to as fiscal policy and is used to affect the level of aggregate demand in an economy. Governments will also use fiscal policy to aid in with wealth distribution and to allocate resources to the various sectors of an economy. Fiscal policy may be expansionary or contractionary and depends on the goals and objectives…

Central Banks Introduce Hawkishness On 21 April, the Bank of Canada was the first industrial country's central bank to signal a reduction in stimulus and a normalisation of monetary policy. Since then, there has been a hint of hawkish sentiment from the Bank of England by chief economist Andy Haldane who views inflation as an increasing threat. We have also seen a positive statement from the Reserve Bank of New…