Russell Shor

TSLA gapped over 5% lower today after Elon Musk's Twiter poll suggested a sale of 10% of his personal stock. In the poll Musk wrote, "Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock. Do you support this?" Of respondents, 57.9% answered in the affirmative. Past performance is not an indicator of future results The left chart…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com Last week's decision by the BoE to hold rates steady surprised the market and GBPUSD was heavily sold. The left chart shows the daily timeframe. Here, GBPUSD is in the weak area – between the lower blue and lower red bands. The right chart shows the hourly timeframe. Here, cable has managed to stabilise in a sideways pattern (red…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Last week's price action confirmed the USDOLLAR's reference low, by closing above the previous week's high (aqua horizontal). It's important to acknowledge that the reference low does not guarantee a bullish swing. However, for a bullish swing to chart, this confirmation was necessary. Moreover, the confirmation respected the current USDOLLAR's momentum. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Trends…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The weekly chart above shows gold (XAUUSD) from the beginning of 2019. The indicator below is the correlation coefficient between the precious metal and the US10Y. For most of this period the correlation has been negative (green rectangle). A reason for this is that bonds and gold are both considered safe-havens. During this period the yield on the US10Y…

The NFP print beat forecast coming in at 531k. The Dow Jones estimate was for 450k. This is a vast improvement over the last two months which missed expectations. Importantly, September's print was revised to the upside, increasing by 312k. Wage inflation came in at the forecast of 0.4% for the month, but was up 4.9% y-o-y. Of note. the participation rate held at the 61.6% level, which would be…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com FXCM's DAX proxy, the GER30, is in the bullish area on the daily chart on the left. The right chart shows the hourly time frame. The bullish hourly crosses of both the EMAs and stochastic potentially align short-term traders with the daily sentiment (red ellipses). Given the bullish triggers, a movement of the stochastic to the 80 level and…

The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment. In this regard, we have seen progress on both fronts. However, the employment market still has room to move before the Fed will be comfortable in terms of its mandate. A broad measure of unemployment in the US is the U6 unemployment rate (as opposed to the often quoted U3 measure). U6 includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results FXCM's US2000, its proxy for the small-cap Russell 2000, has broken out of its 2021 consolidation (blue rectangle). We have applied a triple moving average to test the trendiness of the breakout. The green short EMA is above the orange mid-EMA, and the orange mid-EMA is above the red long EMA. We also note that the EMAs are developing angle and…

The BoE kept its policy rate at 0.1%. The votes came in at 7-2, with Ramsden and Saunders as the dissenters. Comments from the summary refer to an expectation of inflation dissipating over time, with the central bank viewing supply chain disruptions and global demand as normalising. The market was divided as to whether or not the BoE would hike. This was fuelled by the number of hawkish comments over…

In our previous article, we suggested that the USDOLLAR was at a potential swing low point. That is still the case after the Fed announcement yesterday. The next challenge for the greenback will be tomorrow when the non-farm employment change (NFP) is released. Given that this is one of the most anticipated data releases on the monthly calendar, it will be interesting to see if the swing low continues to…

Oil is up around 60% for 2021 and has a current price of approximately $82/barrel (Brent). OPEC+ is due to meet today and market participants don't expect a change to the current output schedules. This despite President Biden and allies encouraging producers with spare capacity to increase production. There is general alarm around inflation and the current call of "transitory" is debated. As such, a cap on oil prices will…