Russell Shor

Daily Chart Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The NAS100's momentum has declined, as per the slow stochastic slipping below 80 (blue rectangle). This, as the index closed lower over the last two consecutive days. However, we do note that yesterday's candle closed well off of its low. I.e., the bears lost control at the low point as bulls took over. Today's price action will…

Weekly Chart Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above is FXCM's proxy for Brent, UKOil, on a weekly scale. From the mid-August low to the mid-October high, UKOil appreciated around 32%. We have used this impulse move for our reference trough (T) and reference peak (P). Since reaching P, UKOil has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (black horizontal). This level is currently…

The Turkish lira has capitulated over the last two months. In this article, we will consider a basic monetary economic model to explain the USDTRY's movements over this time frame. The Quantity Theory of Money One of the earliest models of monetary economics is the quantity theory of money (QTM). It can be traced back to Copernicus in the 16th century but was popularised by Friedman and Schwartz in the…

Facebook announced on 28 October that it had changed its name to Meta Platforms. Please note that the stock ticker will change from FB to MVRS, effective 1 December. The company is currently trading at a PE of 24.4. This is lower than the Nasdaq multiple of 36.08. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The histogram denotes the company's ROIC (calculated using NOPAT, net PP&E…

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The blue vertical is the beginning of November. The precious metal started the month poorly. By the 3rd of November, gold was down about 1.3% (month open to low). However, it charted a reference trough, and almost 48 hours later, it charted the required reference peak. With these two points as an anchor, the precious metal charted a series…

Introduction Since the pandemic high of 2020, the USDOLLAR has followed a structured cycle. There are four distinct phases. 1. Distribution phase. 2. Mark-down phase. 3. Accumulation phase. 4. Mark-up phase. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. Distribution Phase This phase was uncharacteristically quick. As the pandemic unfolded, margin calls and the demand for dollars by debt-laden emerging economies drove the USD price up. However,…

EURUSD Price Action For November Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above considers the EURUSD H4 scale. The vertical line marks 1 November. Area 1 shows that the month had a bullish start to it, climbing near 65 pips. However, this was short-lived, as the EURD plunged for 10 candlesticks before finding support and rebounding (area 2). However, it stopped short of area…

Introduction The GER30, FXCM's proxy for the DAX, is running rampant. It has charted an all-time high this week. Moreover, this is its sixth week of price appreciation. Of note, the index is up 9.9% since its 6 October low. This is is an astounding rate of change. It raises the question of just how long should we expect this to continue? In the near term, it would make sense…

UK core inflation printed at 3.4% y/y, higher than the 3.1% forecast. For the Euro, core came in at 2% y/y, less than the consensus of 2.1%. There is also very different communication from each's central bank. At the monetary policy report hearing on Monday, BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted to being "very uneasy' about inflation. Although the BoE did not raise rates at the last meeting, there were two…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous article, the NAS100 moved positively back into the daily chart's bullish area, between the lower blue and lower red bands. Moreover, the current daily RSI still has room to move before registering as overbought. Given this strength, the hourly trend-following indicators are in a bullish formation, with the shorter-term green EMA above the longer-term orange EMA. Our…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The SPX500 reacted positively to yesterday's retail number, which beat consensus. Core Retail Sales came in at 1.7%, ahead of the 1% expected. The index was faded towards the market close and then traded down in the Asian session. However, SPX500 strength is maintained with the daily chart (left) in the bullish area between the upper blue and upper red bands.…