Technical Analysis

NVIDIA has staged a technically constructive breakout from the falling wedge that had contained the shares since early June. Price has pushed through the wedge's upper boundary near $199-$200 and moved back above both short-term moving averages, suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to ease and that momentum may be turning in favour of buyers.

The momentum signal is particularly encouraging. RSI has broken above its own descending trendline and moved back above the neutral 50 level. This provides confirmation that the price breakout is being accompanied by improving underlying momentum rather than representing an isolated price spike. The combination of a falling-wedge breakout and an RSI move above 50 strengthens the bullish reversal case.

The immediate test is the $204-$206 region, where the latest advance has encountered resistance. A decisive daily close above this area would provide stronger confirmation and could open the way towards approximately $211, followed by the more significant $218–$220 zone.

On the downside, the former wedge resistance around $199-$200 should now act as initial support. A controlled pullback that holds this area would represent a constructive retest of the breakout. A move back below $198 would weaken the signal, while a break below roughly $193-$194 would raise the risk that the breakout has failed.
Overall, the chart has shifted from a persistent short-term decline towards an emerging bullish reversal.

China Reopening Hopes Add Fundamental Weight to NVIDIA's Breakout

A potentially supportive fundamental catalyst is the prospect of NVIDIA gaining limited access to China's advanced-AI-chip market. The US has reportedly cleared about ten Chinese companies to buy H200 processors, while Beijing is considering whether to permit restricted imports, although no final approval has been announced and NVIDIA has so far recorded no revenue under the programme.

Even a modest reopening could provide incremental sales and improve sentiment towards a business that remains underpinned by exceptional AI-infrastructure demand: NVIDIA's fiscal first-quarter revenue reached a record $81.6 billion, including $75.2 billion from Data Centre.

The technical breakout therefore coincides with a credible fundamental catalyst, but the China opportunity remains speculative, while export controls, domestic Chinese competition and mounting scrutiny of hyperscaler returns remain important risks.