Gold rises on tariff and geopolitical uncertainty
XAU/USD Analysis
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1], but this created a fresh wave of trade uncertainty. The US President quickly announced a 10% global levy for 150 days, which has already taken effect [2], and later said this would be raised to 15% [3], although that has not yet been enacted into policy. The US leader doubled down on tariffs during Tuesday's State of the Union address, stating that these will remain in place "under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes" and noting that Congressional action "will not be necessary". [4]
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as President Trump kept pressure on Iran during his address, saying he will not allow the country to obtain a nuclear weapon. This follows his "ten to fifteen days" ultimatum to Tehran to reach a deal [5]and remarks by special envoy Witkoff on Fox that Iran is "a week away" from building a bomb. [6]
XAU/USD attracts safe haven flows amid heightened geopolitical tensions and renewed trade uncertainty. The pursuit of additional tariffs adds pressure on the USDOLLAR, compounding bullion strength and keeping it on course for new all-time highs. Nonetheless, XAU/USD remains vulnerable to pullbacks that would retest the EMA200 and challenge the bullish outlook. Despite a military build-up in the Middle East and ongoing conflict risks, President Trump reiterated his preference for a diplomatic solution and tariff uncertainty could begin to ease. Moreover, gold remains susceptible to profit-taking and volatility given elevated speculative positioning.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 25 Feb 2026 https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf | |
| Retrieved 25 Feb 2026 https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-a-temporary-import-duty-to-address-fundamental-international-payment-problems/ | |
| Retrieved 25 Feb 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116109447886304328 | |
| Retrieved 25 Feb 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 25 Feb 2026 https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-gives-iran-10-day-ultimatum-experts-signal-talks-may-buying-time-strike | |
| Retrieved 19 May 2026 https://www.foxnews.com/media/witkoff-warns-iran-a-week-away-from-bomb-material-trump-weighs-action |
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