Gold rebounds as President Trump extends Iran ceasefire
XAU/USD Analysis
President Trump extended the ceasefire until Iran's representatives submit a "unified proposal" and "discussions are concluded" [1]. This decision came shortly after he had told CNBC that he did not want to go ahead with such an extension, while restating his belief that the two sides are going to reach a "great deal".
The move lowers the geopolitical temperature and renews hopes for a deal that would end the conflict and allow energy flows to resume, pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, the USDOLLAR, which has emerged as the key risk-off play, sees demand constrained by the news and the improved sentiment.
This allows XAU/USD to rebound, attempting to reclaim the EMA200. A successful effort would reinstate the upside bias and keep the door open to further advances toward all-time highs. Despite its poor performance during this period of geopolitical and trade uncertainty, the structural case for gold remains intact. Central bank buying remains a key pillar, with the People's Bank of China adding to its reserves again in March [3]. At the same time, bullion is the key beneficiary of de-dollarisation and debasement trends that show no signs of fading, as the war can increase global deficits while trade uncertainty lingers.
On the other hand, the near-term path for XAU/USD remains challenging, both technically and fundamentally. The descending trendline from the record peak and a falling daily Ichimoku Cloud could fend off recovery efforts. Additionally, its failure to leave the EMA200 behind keeps it vulnerable to deeper declines back into bear territory.
Despite hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict, uncertainty remains high. Iran does not intend to attend negotiations today according to local media [4] and President Trump has repeatedly threatened fresh military strikes if a deal is not reached [5]. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is still under a double blockade and energy prices remain elevated, sustaining inflationary risks.
This is pushing central banks in a more hawkish direction and markets do not expect a rate cut from the Fed. Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, did not provide any dovish signals during Tuesday's Senate hearing and defended Fed independence [6]. Current monetary policy expectations support the dollar and weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 22 Apr 2026 https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/22/3571872/iran-definitely-not-to-be-in-pakistan-on-wednesday-but-why | |
| Retrieved 22 Apr 2026 http://m.safe.gov.cn/safe/2026/0206/27116.html | |
| Retrieved 22 Apr 2026 https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/22/3571872/iran-definitely-not-to-be-in-pakistan-on-wednesday-but-why | |
| Retrieved 22 Apr 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116431297579272777 | |
| Retrieved 16 May 2026 https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/04/14/2026/nomination-hearing |
These materials constitute marketing communication and do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, investment experience or current financial situation. The content is provided as general market commentary and should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice, investment recommendation and/or a solicitation for any investment transactions. This market communication does not imply or impose an obligation on you to perform an investment transaction and/or purchase investment products or services. These materials have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and are not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
FXCM, and any of its Affiliates, shall not in any way be liable to you for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions, regardless of cause, in the content of these materials, or for any damages (whether direct or indirect) which may arise from the use of such materials, services and their content. Consequently, any person acting on them does so entirely at their own risk. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.