Gold reaches new records on safe-haven demand and US dollar weakness
XAU/USD Analysis
Despite Greenland de-escalation after President Trump backed away from military action and added tariffs [1], trade and geopolitical tensions persist, driving safe-haven inflows. Uncertainty remains over the "framework of a future deal" involving critical minerals and the Golden Dome. Furthermore, the US President threatened Canada with 100 per cent levies if it reaches a trade deal with China [2] and continued to pressure Iran, citing on Friday "a massive fleet" heading to the region. [3]
Meanwhile, the USDOLLAR weakens amid rate cut bets and renewed government shutdown risks after Senate Democrats vowed to block a massive spending bill [4]. Yen intervention risks add to dollar weakness, as Reuters reported that the Federal Reserve conducted dollar-yen rate checks, raising speculation over a coordinated effort. [5]
Trade and geopolitical uncertainty, combined with heightened concerns over the fiscal positions of the US and Japan, underscore structural demand driver for XAU/USD. Central banks, such as China's, and investors worldwide have been seeking to diversify away from the greenback, while rising global deficits erode confidence in major currencies, further supporting bullion's strength.
These factors have driven XAU/USD to new all-time highs and can continue to propel it higher. The bullish bias remains difficult to challenge given favourable cyclical and structural drivers, but there is scope for pullbacks towards the EMA200.
The move is technically stretched, and gold is susceptible to profit-taking and volatility, particularly as speculative positioning builds. Meanwhile, Greenland de-escalation and ongoing diplomatic efforts for Ukraine peace could dampen risk-off flows, while the US dollar may prove resilient as the Fed could struggle to deliver multiple rate cuts amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 26 Jan 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115934734335579278 | |
| Retrieved 26 Jan 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115950424403894234 | |
| Retrieved 26 Jan 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 26 Jan 2026 https://x.com/SenSchumer/status/2015211069493350505 | |
| Retrieved 19 May 2026 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ny-fed-carried-out-dollaryen-rate-checks-source-says-2026-01-23/ |
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