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UKOil tests critical support as uneven Hormuz flows erode the supply premium.
UKOil’s overheated July rally has hit a geopolitical reality check, with $85-$86 now deciding whether the uptrend survives or unravels.
XAU/USD gains as the US and Iran pause hostilities, easing inflation fears ahead of the Fed decision, but price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty linger.
UKOil’s bullish technical breakout is reinforced by renewed Hormuz supply risks, although weak demand remains a key counterweight.
UKOil is bullish above $82 but faces key resistance at $86, with the next move likely determined by whether Hormuz tensions escalate or ease.
Gold’s near-term direction will depend on whether CPI, Warsh and Hormuz push real yields and the dollar higher or lower.
USOIL gains amid a fresh wave of military strikes by the US and Iran and conflicting signals over transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
UKOil remains bearish below $75, with oversold conditions allowing for a bounce but softer supply fundamentals keeping $70.50 at risk unless Hormuz disruption revives the geopolitical premium.
XAUUSD is attempting to stabilise on softer US payrolls, but remains technically cautious until it breaks the downtrend line and confirms a higher trough and higher peak.
Oil, natural gas, copper, silver and gold will be in the spotlight in the second half of the year amid shifting fundamental drivers.
Macro headwinds are weighing on commodities, but structural growth themes continue to underpin the sector.
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