USOIL Upbeat at Critical Tech Junction
USOIL Analysis
The commodity slumped to the lowest level in more than one year earlier this month, as the banking rout unfolded, sparking worries for the health of the financial system and recession fears creeped back in. Those concerns seem to have eased, after robust actions from authorities to contain the fallout, as well as verbal reassurances.
The turmoil and prospects of credit tightening, forced the Fed into a conservative shift, with a small 25 basis points increase last week and the projections of one more hike of the same size before pausing.
The above factors have led USOil to a solid rebound and a strong Monday rally, supported by the biggest decline in US stockpiles since November. Yesterday's EIA report U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.5 million barrels last week. [1]
USOil tries to take out the critical EMA200 (black line) and daily closes above it would shift bias on the upside, but does not inspire much confidence at this stage for challenging the 2023 highs (82.64). Despite the recent advance, the commodity still heads to a losing month and its previous visits above the EMA200 have been short-lived. There is risk for sub-70.00 moves, although 62.42-61.72 looks distant.
Markets now turn to US GDP and PCE inflation update, which would be the first test for the Fed's dovish shift and could determine the trajectory of the commodity.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 18 Apr 2026 https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf |
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.