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Introduction The USD has been pulling back since its peaked in December. Moreover, the greenback has declined markedly since the CPI release yesterday, which showed inflation increasing at its fastest pace in 40-years. The pullback in the greenback may be a function of the "buy the rumour, sell the fact" phenomenon. I.e., markets are forward-looking, and FXCM's USDOLLAR basket accelerated its momentum upwards as far back as September last year.…
Read the daily market update as we head towards the European open, to get some of the latest developments, main market moves and upcoming events
10-2 Treasury Yield Spread The 10-2 yield curve will be a concern for the Fed. Since April 2021 it has been flattening considerably (blue square area). The Fed has indicated three rate hikes for 2022, and the market sees a distinct possibility for a fourth. However, the Fed (and central banks in general) tend to operate on the short-term side of the yield curve. This means that, in isolation, these…
10-2 Treasury Yield Spread The 10-2 yield curve will be a concern for the Fed. Since April 2021 it has been flattening considerably (blue square area). The Fed has indicated three rate hikes for 2022, and the market sees a distinct possibility for a fourth. However, the Fed (and central banks in general) tend to operate on the short-term side of the yield curve. This means that, in isolation, these…
Read the daily market update as we head towards the European open, to get some of the latest developments, main market moves and upcoming events
Read the daily market update as we head towards the European open, to get some of the latest developments, main market moves and upcoming events
Weekly Chart Oil prices rose off of the supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya, effectively ignoring any demand scares from rising Omicron infections. The interruptions are due to protests in Kazakhstan affecting transport channels and pipeline maintenance in Libya. The weekly chart below shows that USOil has charted a higher trough, and, if it can push above 85 (aqua horizontal), will chart a higher peak. If this happens, USOil will…
Read the daily market update as we head towards the European open, to get some of the latest developments, main market moves and upcoming events
Hawkish minutes from the Fed last monetary policy meeting and today’s Non-Farm Payrolls, dominated during the first week of the year
Read the daily market update as we head towards the European open, to get some of the latest developments, main market moves and upcoming events
The charts below show an interesting relationship between gold and bonds. The top chart is XAUUSD, the middle chart is IEF - iShares 7-10yr Bond ETF, and the bottom chart is the US 10 Yr. Treasury yield. The red trendline shows the period between the third quarter of 2018 to the middle of 2020. During this period, gold and bond prices both appreciated, whilst yields declined. The orange trendline represents…
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