NAS100 Subdued Ahead of the Fed’s Minutes & the Thanksgiving Holiday
NAS100 Analysis
The week started with risk aversion, emanating from the elevated Covid-19 cases from China and the first related deaths in a long time, which create fears over the economic outlook of the world's largest second economy.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest forecasts on Tuesday, not expecting a global recession under the central scenario, but does see a slowdown next year. For the United States in particular, it forecasts GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2023, from 1.2% in the previous projections. [1]
Investors have also been contemplating the potential for a moderation in the Fed's rate hikes pace, something to which many officials have alluded over the past several days. Others have been more hawkish however, but in any case, most of them seem to point to further tightening ahead.
In the latest policy decision earlier in November, Chair Powell had hinted towards smaller moves at some point, but had succinctly ruled out any pause and hinted to a higher terminal rate than previously thought. [2]
Today, markets will be looking at the minutes of that meeting, for more insights on the intentions of policy makers. We also expect a slew of economic releases, ahead the Thanksgiving holiday. Wall Street will be closed on Thursday and Friday will be a half-day, affecting the trading hours of various FXCM products
Sentiment remains fragile and NAS100 comes from a losing week, which creates risk for a breach of the EMA200 (11,460). The daily Ichimoku Cloud that follows could offer support and a catalyst would be required for sub-11,000 moves, whereas 10,437 seems distant at this point.
Despite the poor start to the week, NAS100 looks past risk-factors and above the EMA200 it has the ability to push for fresh November highs (12,080-89), although further advance past 12,468 has a higher degree of difficulty.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 23 Nov 2022 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/f6da2159-en/index.html | |
| Retrieved 01 Jun 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20221102.htm |
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