NAS100 Subdued after Strong Factory Activity
NAS100 Analysis
Wall Street did not mind the inflation persistence as indicated by Friday's PCE update, but was spooked by yesterday's unexpectedly strong ISM Manufacturing PMI, in another manifestation of the "good news is bad news" approach. Factory activity expanded for the first time since September 2022, providing another signal of a robust economy.
CME's FedWatch Tool still assigns the highest probability to 75 basis points of cuts to begin in June, but conviction diminished and chances of a shallower path increased after the PMI report [1]. The Fed has no reason to rush cuts with sticky inflation, strong economy and robust labor market.
NAS100 is cautious as result and there is scope for sub EMA200 moves that would pause the bullish momentum, but the downside appears well protected, starting with the rising daily Ichimoku Cloud. Despite its conservative approach to removing monetary restraint, the Fed maintained the projection that points to three rate cuts this year [2]. This continues to support NAS100, which can push for higher highs towards the 19,000 mark.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2024 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html | |
| Retrieved 26 Mar 2026 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20240320.htm |
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