NAS100 Cautious on the Bull Border, After Netflix & Tesla Disappointment

NAS100 Analysis

The tech heavy index rallied in the first quarter of the year and had a very strong March, looking past the banking turmoil sparked by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, as this forced the Fed into more conservative stance. This month however, markets contemplate a series of risk-factors, which have constrained it into a consolidation mode on the edge of a bull market, since it gains around 20%, from the 2022 lows.

Fears of an economic slowdown have creeped back in after the recent financial stress and this month's Fed minutes of the last policy decision, revealed that the bank's staff projected a "mild recession" recession this year, due to these developments ^[1]. The corporate world seems to be in similar mood, with JP Morgan Chase for example, expecting a "moderate recession" due to tightening financial conditions. ^[2]

Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight with unemployment close to historic lows and persistent inflation, despite the deceleration. Even though the Fed adopted a restrained stance in March, we have recently seen more hawkish commentary by various voting members, because of these strong data.

Mr Harker yesterday noted the need for "addition tightening" in order to reach a restrictive policy and then "hold rates in place", pushing the higher-for-longer narrative ^[3]. A day earlier, Mr Williams had warned of "still too high" inflation, expressing his resolve to "use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability". ^[4]

These are some of the headwinds that contain the advance of NAS100 from further progress, while this week's disappointing earnings reports from Netflix and Tesla Motors Inc did not help. The streaming giant posted mixed results, adding only 1.75 million subscribers in the first quarter and although its financials were mostly strong, they were far form impressive ^[5]. The EV leader experienced a 24% y/y profit slump, hit by the multiple price cuts it has made to its vehicles over the past few months. ^[6]

The tech sector will remain in the spotlight during the upcoming week, since many heavyweight release their quarterly reports. Meta Platforms stands out on Arpil 26, after a strong rebound in Q1, as its CEO tries to make it more efficient, following a brutal 2022.

Against this backdrop, NAS100 is losing ground this week, unable to capitalize on the 2023 highs it set earlier in the month, which creates risk for a move below the EMA200 (12,780-70). Daily closes below it would halt the bullish bias and bring the 12,340-12,276 region, although a significant deterioration in sentiment would be needed for this level to be challenged.

Despite the lack of progress, the tech-heavy index has shown remarkable resilience against these adverse developments and remains in the driver's seat for new 2023 highs. However, it does not seem ready to challenge 13,724 at this stage.