GER30 Subdued, Awaiting a Slew of Economic Releases
GER30 Analysis
The German index has been recovering since its October multi-month lows and got off to a strong 2023 start, on optimism around the European economy. The Euro Area avoided an economic contraction in Q4, according to preliminary data, while the EU Commission raised its forecasts this week, expecting GDP growth of 0.9% this year (from 0.3% previously). [1]
Focus now shifts to tomorrow's preliminary PMIs, for a fresh gauge of the state of the European and German economies, as well as sentiment surveys, inflation data and more over the following days.
GER30 has been resilient to the aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank and hawkish commentary from policy makers since then. The central bank hiked rates by 0.5% at the start of February and stated its intention for another move of this size next month, with Ms Lagarde not expecting that to be the peak. [2]
GER30 has 15,739 in its crosshairs, which could open the door to the record highs set a little over a year ago (16,302). However, progress has been slow recently and a slide towards the EMA200 (15,200-15,130) would not be surprising. Daily closes below it could accelerate a correction below 15K, but a strong catalyst would likely be needed for that.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 20 Feb 2023 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_707 | |
| Retrieved 07 Jun 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is230202~4313651089.en.html |
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.