GBP/USD Supported Ahead of key Events & Tech Levels

  • GBPUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

GBP/USD Analysis

Markets have been preparing for a moderation in the pace of rate hikes by the US Fed, which runs its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. Last week's minutes pointed to such a downshift, but officials also stressed the need for more increases and the likelihood for a higher terminal rate than previously expected. [1]

Chair Powell is giving a speech later today and markets will be looking for any insights into the intentions of policy makers. This comes just days before the communication blackout period kicks-in, ahead of the mid-December policy decision.

Apart from Mr Powell, we expect a series of economic data from the US that include the preliminary Q3 GDP today, the PCE inflation tomorrow and the Jobs Report on Friday. These can spur volatility and define the trajectory of GBP/USD.

The lower expectations around the Fed have harmed the greenback and have assisted the British Pound to a strong recovery from September's record lows, heading towards its best month in two years. GBP/USD is supported today and has the ability to extend its advance towards 1.2294-1.2300, but we are cautious for further gains that would challenge 1.2667.

The two-month relied-rally falters however at key technical levels, since GBP/USD runs a negative week, having rejected the 200Day EMA. Below it, there is scope for further slide, but a strong catalyst would needed for moves below the 1.1700-1.1650 region. This includes the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022 high/low plunge, the EMA200 and the ascending trend line from the record low.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 02 Feb 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20221102.htm

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