GBP/USD Rises to 3-Month Highs after the Fed Minutes, Testing Key Tech Levels
GBP/USD Analysis
Wednesday's minutes of the last Fed policy meeting, showed that "a substantial majority of participants" believe that a moderation in the pace of rate hikes "would likely soon be appropriate", as monetary policy approaches a sufficiently restrictive level. [1]
On the other hand, policy makers judged that the pace of increases has become less important, compared to the ultimate level of rates, which is "somewhat higher" than they previously expected.
Markets have been contemplating a slower path of tightening by the US central bank and yesterday's accounts affirmed this view, sending the USDOLLAR lower. However, official still expect more tightening and higher terminal rate than previously expected.
The British Pound has managed to stage an impressive recovery form its September record lows, helped by the biggest rate hike in thirty-three years by the Bank of England earlier in the month. However, it pushed back against market expectations around the terminal rate and projects a prolonged recession, which could limit its ability to continue tightening. [2]
The economic calendar is rather light ahead, but we expect speeches from a number of BoE policy makers today. Caution is needed in regards to volatility/liquidity conditions, since US markets will be closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday.
GBP/USD is running its third straight profitable week and the best month in more than two years, covering around half of its 2022 high/low plunge. With the help of the Fed minutes its sets fresh three-month highs today, testing the key 200Days EMA. This brings 1.2294 in the spotlight, but a pullback may be required in order to take it out and get the chance to look towards 1.2667.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index revels the most overbought conditions in more than year. That would make a move lower reasonable, but a strong catalyst would be required for daily closes below the key support area of 1.1652-1.1550. This includes the 38.2% Fibonacci, the EMA200 and the ascending trendline form the record lows.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 24 Nov 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20221102.htm | |
| Retrieved 29 Nov 2023 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/november-2022 |
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