EUR/USD Upbeat as EU Downgrades Growth Forecast, UK Seeks Changes in the NI Protocol

  • EURUSD
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EUR/USD Analysis

Fear of stagflation has been a constant theme for the most part of the year, as the war in Ukraine, hot on the heels of the Covid-19 pandemic have wrecked havoc to supply chains and the forces of demand and supply.

The European Commission released today its Spring Economic Forecast, now projecting lower Real GDP of 2.7% in the Euro area this year, from 2.7 on its previous forecast [1]. Last month, the International Monetary Fund had also downgraded its Euro area GDP to 2.8%, from 3.9% prior in January. [2]

Fresh tensions between the European Union and the United Kingdom are likely to arise over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which had been agreed by the two sides as part of their Brexit deal. However, PM Johnson has sought to change this arrangement as it creates problems in Northern Ireland. He essentially threatened to scrap it on Sunday, with his Belfast Telegraph article, writing that "I hope the EU's position changes. If it does not, there will be a necessity to act". [3]

The day had started with poor economic data from China, making markets jittery after a risk-off week. Now we will be waiting to see in what mood will US traders enter, while the economic calendar features quite a few releases form both Europe and US on Tuesday, including comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.

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The technical landscape is intact, since EUR/USD comes from six straight losing weeks, the longest streak in four years. Risk for a breach of the 2017 multi-year lows (1.0339) remains high, although a test of 1.0204 will require more effort.

On the other hand, the common currency is perky and a push to retake 1.0500 would not surprise us, but we straggle to see sustained recovery at this stage, that would challenge the moth's high and the EMA200 (1.0642-1.0700).

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 16 May 2022 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2022-economic-forecast_en

2

Retrieved 16 May 2022 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022

3

Retrieved 01 Jul 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/comment/stormont-must-be-restored-so-politicians-can-deliver-for-the-people-of-ni-41652590.html

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