EUR/USD Upbeat After Tuesday’s Rally on Ukraine Optimism
Russia-Ukraine Negotiations
The delegations of the two countries met face-to-face on Tuesday in Turkey and the talks seem to have been constructive. As per Russian news agency TASS, the leader of the Russian delegations said that Ukraine's proposals "demonstrate that it wants a neutral and nuclear-free status"[1]. One of the main takeaways, was Russia's pledge to "drastically reduce military activity" around Kiyv – the Capital of Ukraine. [2]
Ukrainian Presidnt Zelenskyy appeared cautious, noting that the signals form the talks can be called "positive", but also said that Ukrainians "are not naive people". [3]
US Pentagon spokesperson Kirby confirmed that "some movement by some Russian units away from Kyiv" has taken place, but believes this is a "repositioning, not a real withdrawal", adding that "we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine". [4]
EUR/USD Analysis
These developments created risk-on mood in markets and helped the common currency to roughly a 100-pip rally yesterday. It blasted through the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022High/Low drop and today it takes the EMA200 out, trying to surpass the 50% mark (1.1150) that could allow it to challenge 1.1233, but further advance may be harder.
On the other hand, the pair's previous visits above the 38.2% level have not been successful, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to overbought conditions. This could create pressure below mid-1.1000, but a catalyst will be required for fresh weekly lows (1.0960-53).
Caution is needed ahead, as the economic calendar features potentially market moving releases, such as Inflation updates from Eurozone and the US, as well as the always closely watched NFPs.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://tass.com/politics/1429025 | |
| Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/signali-z-peregovoriv-mozhna-nazvati-pozitivnimi-ale-voni-ne-73937 | |
| Retrieved 19 Apr 2026 https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2982197/defense-official-says-real-withdrawal-is-complete-withdrawal-from-ukraine/ |
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