US 10-year treasury pauses as overbought condition normalises
The US 10-year yield has paused, but underlying momentum has not dissipated.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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The US 10-year yield has paused, but underlying momentum has not dissipated.
The GER30 is showing resilience and is outperforming the US risk markets.
Dow breaks out of short-term continuation pattern ahead of cash open.
Gold bulls support the price on the short-term pivot, but the longer-term trend may dominate.
The S&P 500 is rallying pre-cash open. However, key levels above suggest caution still needs to be exercised.
The Fed delivered a 50bps hike as expected, and the BoE statement makes a stagflation inference. RBA also raises rates in this uncertain economic environment. All eyes now turn to this week's CPI print in anticipation of moderation.
FXCM's USDOLLAR basket is pulling back to a key level, characterised by a triple confluence of support. This overlap may present too good an opportunity for greenback bulls to ignore.
Stocks are under pressure following the Fed press conference last Wednesday. Fed Chair Powell took 75bps off the table for the next two meetings, and the market is now questioning this, given the rampant inflation.
The Fed and BoE have hiked rates, and pressure is on the ECB to raise, but growth concerns may limit policy.
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