Russell Shor

The GER30 has had a negative correlation to the US real rate since June 2021. Despite the geography, this makes a certain sense.

Yesterday’s GDP data show that the US economy decelerated at a higher pace than previously reported. Q4 GDP was revised to 2.7%, which is down from the previously reported number of 2.9% and lower than Q3’s 3.2%. The revision is due to lower consumer spending and exports, with personal consumption expenditure up 1.4% compared with the prior forecast of 2.1%.

GER30 has bounced off of the support around the 15,260 level (green shaded horizontal). Since the beginning of February, it has been threatened seven times. Every time it has been defended.

The FOMC minutes show that the Fed sees a slowing of inflation, which may support a peak in the federal funds rate this year. However, the minutes were penned before notable data. January’s jobs report was strong, showing an increase of 517,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Inflation was also higher than consensus, with the headline CPI printing at 0.5% m/m.

GBPUSD has charted a lower peak followed by a lower trough on the daily time frame (left). This is a defined down trend. Yesterday, GBPUSD appreciated following its flash PMI beats. However, there is no follow through today.

Markets fell yesterday, with the US30 declining 1.67% on the day. The decline shows concern regarding the Fed’s rate hiking path, with the “higher for longer” paradigm pricing in, as the flash PMIs came in hotter than expected.

The Canadian trimmed CPI y/y came in at 5.1%, less than the previous 5.3% y/y and below the consensus of 5.2% y/y. This measures consumer inflation but excludes the 40% most volatile items. Core retail sales also declined, printing at -0.6% m/m/ against the -0.1% expected.

Last week’s CPI and PPI release show a stickiness to inflation. The market seems to be coming around to the Fed’s view whilst several Fed officials talk up interest rates. This week the Fed’s minutes will be released on Wednesday and Friday sees the all-important core PCE release. Join FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss these and more.

It is reacting slower than expected, but the NAS100 IS reacting to higher real rates.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR has charted a lower peak followed by a lower trough. This is a defined down trend.

Sticky inflation persists. The prices of median goods and services have ticked up. This slow change of prices is a headache for the Federal Reserve. They will worry that inflation expectations have anchored to an elevated level.