Russell Shor

US headline CPI printed at 3.1%, which was lower than the previous 3.4% but higher than the 2.9% expected. The headline month-on-month number was 0.3%, higher than the previous month’s 0.2%.

Bitcoin has appreciated into a resistance zone around the $49,000 area (red shaded horizontal). Moreover, the daily RSI has moved into overbought territory (green rectangle). It is unlikely that the indicator will stay overbought for long, suggesting that the overhead resistance level may be a key reaction level for the cryptocurrency.

The price of ARM Holdings shares jumped following its earnings release. For the December quarter, the company reported $824m in revenue, which crushed expectations of $726m. Adjusted EPS were 29 cents versus consensus of 25 cents.

The SPX500 weekly chart has moved into overbought territory with its RSI above 80 (green rectangle). This comes as the index nears the 5,000 level. Round numbers often prove to be psychological resistance areas, and this may be the case given the index’s frothy indications. I.e. a pullback over the coming weeks is a distinct possibility.

Palantir (PLTR.us), the maker of defensive software, surged close to 31% yesterday after the company beat Q4 earnings expectations, with the stock closing at $21.87. This is the company’s largest one day percentage gain on record. In the past the market had concerns about future deals with the government, but this has been overlooked with the market positively receiving the company’s success in its commercial deals for its analytics software.

FXCM’s China 50 basket gapped up on news that a state fund will boost stock purchases. China’s Central Huijin Investment, a sovereign fund that owns China’s state-run banks and other government enterprises, said it will step-up its purchases of stock index funds to support the market. The fund tends to buy big state banks and companies to counter the selling pressure in the Chinese market, largely due to China’s property…

Intel Stock gapped down on 26 January following the chip makers outlook for Q1 2024, which lagged analysts’ forecasts. However, it is notable that the company’s stock price nearly doubled in 2023, surging by 91%.

The jobs data came in exceptionally hot today. The non-farm employment change printed at 353K, which is almost double the market expectation of 187K. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, lower than the 3.8% anticipated and monthly average hourly earnings is double expectations at 0.6%. Last month's non-farm employment change was also revised higher to 333K.

The Bank of England held the official bank rate at 5.25%, with Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel being the only two hawks favouring a 25bps hike. This is more hawkish than expected as general thinking was that the three hawks that voted in December would relent. Moreover, the statement indicated that the central bank was still concerned over the persistence of inflation, with the forecast for inflation pushing back against…

Microsoft (MSFT.us) delivered $2.93 EPS on a revenue of $62.02 billion for the quarter ended 31 December 2023. This is ahead of Wall Street estimates of $2.77 EPS and $61.1 billion. In effect, the company’s earnings increased 33% on a year-over year basis and sales increased by 18%.

Core PCE has come in at 2.9% y/y, with a strong showing in disinflation towards the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. The monthly number is 0.17%, which annualises to 2.01%. There is a general confidence that the Federal Reserve is well on its way to hitting its inflation target, with the market currently giving a 50-50 chance of a 25bps cut in March and a 90% chance in May.