USOIL Rises on Renewed Russia-West Tensions
USOil Analysis
Russian President Putin signed a partial military mobilization order, according to Interfax, under which only reservists will be drafted [1]. This escalates tensions between Russia and the West, sparks fresh worries over the energy supplies.
The Nord Stream pipeline that supplies gas to Europe has been shut since the end of August [2], while Mr Putin had recently warned that all energy flows could be completely cut-off [3].
Oil prices move higher as a result of today's announcement, since fears over supply become more heightened for now. Furthermore, a deal between the West and Iran, over its nuclear program, that could lift sanctions on oil exports does is still elusive.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi asked for more guarantees that would prevent the US from withdrawing again from the deal, speaking on CBS's 60 Minutes on Sunday. [4]
USOil gets a boost and the Releative Strenght Index crosses above 50, providing a chance to push for critical 89.70-90.30 region, which includes the EMA200 and the descending trendline from the summer highs. Daily closes above this level would pause downward bias, although it does yet inspire confidence for a broader recovery towards 98.69.
On the other hand, worries over reduced demand don't go away as markets gear up for another outsized rate hike by the Fed today, which increases risk of a recession.
The World Bank alluded to this possibility last week, noting that "As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023". [5]
As such, risk of renewed pressure towards 78.23 does not go away, but sustained weakness below 74.26 continues to have a high degree of difficulty.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 21 Sep 2022 https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/83239/ | |
| Retrieved 21 Sep 2022 https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1565759390782742529 | |
| Retrieved 21 Sep 2022 https://forumvostok.ru/en/ | |
| Retrieved 21 Sep 2022 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-60-minutes-2022-09-18/ | |
| Retrieved 23 Sep 2023 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes |
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