USOIL Mixed as Markets Digest IEA Demand Outlook & Chinese Data
USOIL Analysis
The International Energy Agency (IEA) upgraded its 2023 oil demand outlook, now expecting it to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, from two mbpd previously. This is largely driven by China's recovery, which is "even stronger than previously expected" and projected to account for 60% of the global demand growth. More to it, the agency anticipates "tighter market balances" in the back-half of the year, which are "in stark contrast" to the current pessimism. [1]
However, April's economic data from the world's biggest importer of oil, have raised questions around the recovery. Today's release showed solid increases in industrial production and retail sales, but the figures were much lower than expected by markets.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy announced plans to buy three million barrels of oil taking advantage of the recent price slump, in order to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) which has fallen to the lowest levels since the early '80s. [2]
At the beginning of the month, USOil had slumped to the lowest levels since late 2021 due to recession fears and other factors. This looks increasingly like a bottom, given the recent surprise OPEC+ output cuts and China's reopening, but the road to it has not closed.
USOil has bounced since then, with the help of the Fed's pause hint, but will need catalyst to surpass the critical resistance area of 73.80-75.94 that would shift bias on the upside.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 16 May 2023 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2023 | |
| Retrieved 16 May 2023 https://www.energy.gov/articles/us-department-energy-announces-purchases-strategic-petroleum-reserve |
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