US30 Trades with Caution Following Last Week’s Recovery

  • US30
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

US30

Markets are on edge as recent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have managed to create hopes for a peaceful solution, but there has not been any major breakthrough, as the war has entered its 26th day.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that if negotiation efforts fail "that would mean that this is a third World War" in an interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria. He also repeated that he is ready to meet his Russian President Putin. [1]

Last week the US Federal Reserve had started its rate hiking cycle, with an aggressive tightening path ahead, as official project roughly six more hikes this year, with the median projection now standing at 1.9%. [2]

The US stock market was not spooked by the Fed's hawkish actions, as those had been well telegraphed, with the US30 completing its best week of the year. More to it, it managed to move to profitable territory this month, after the poor start of the year, closing well above its 200Days and 200H4s EMAs.

This brings the daily Ichimokou Cloud in its crosshairs (35,000-35,100), above which it will be able to look towards last month's high (35,870), although it is probably early for that.

Despite last week's significant progress, the index starts the new one on the back foot, and the Relatve Strength Index (RSI) points to overbought levels. This keeps risk for a retreat to the EMA200 alive (34,00-34,050), but a catalyst would be needed for daily closes below it, that would shift bias back to the downside and could expose it to 33,152.

Today's economic calendar is rather light, but markets await Fed Chair Powell, who is on tap at 16:00 GMT.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 21 Mar 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch

2

Retrieved 25 Jun 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220316.pdf

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