SPX500 pulls back as data dampens March rate cut scenario.

  • SPX500

Source: www.tradingview.com

Weekly Chart (Left)
The SPX500 is in bullish mode. It is above its black 30-week EMA, with the EMA pointing up. Its momentum-based RSI is above 50 (green rectangle), denoting a positive underlying momentum. However, there is a resistance area around 4,800 (red rectangle).

Daily Chart (Right)
In response, the daily chart has pulled back and is currently in its neutral area between the two blue bands (blue arrow). To make headway upwards, the daily chart will need to cross into its bullish zone, between the upper red and blue bands.

The market has priced in rate cuts for March and will need to see more data to support this. However, current data releases pushed back here, with stronger than anticipated jobs data last week. The solid employment gains, low unemployment and sticky wages implied a lower necessity for the Federal reserve to cut rates sooner.

Nevertheless, rate cuts are still expected, with the CME FedWatch tool suggesting a 55% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in March. Calendar releases that contribute to this will tend to support the SPX500 and push it into its bullish zone.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

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