Retail numbers strong with previous revised up; rates hikes on track

Today's core retail print came in higher than expected – 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% m/m. Moreover, the previous core number of 1.4% m/m was revised significantly upwards to 2.1% m/m. These are strong numbers that the Fed will certainly take notice of in its effort to quell inflation. This is because the Fed's rate increases influence the demand side of the economy. Consider the US Redbook index, which is a sales-weighted index of large US general merchandise retailers:

We note that the series has been coming down since the beginning of 2022 (blue dashed vertical). Nevertheless, it is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the momentum of the index has been rising since March (red dashed vertical – lower stochastic indicator), which suggests to us that the Fed's current hiking cycle is set to continue unhindered.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.