Dating back to the post-WWII reconstruction era, the United Kingdom has had a tumultuous relationship with the organisations of Europe. Beginning with a refusal to sign the Treaty of Rome in 1957 and culminating with the 2016 vote for Brexit, various factions in the U.K. have desired to keep mainland Europe at arm's-length.
While working to preserve the global standing of Great Britain, English leaders from Margaret Thatcher to Theresa May have addressed the question of membership to the European Union in detail. At times, the social and economic dialogue surrounding the ongoing relationship has become heated. The Brexit vote and subsequent transition process have illustrated this point on numerous occasions.
The eventual Brexit event will pose many challenges to the viability of the British pound sterling (GBP).
Economic relationships with EU member nations will fundamentally change. In addition, support for a Scottish independence referendum may further shake up the commercial environment in the U.K. Upon the passing of "Brexit Day" on 29 March 2019, the GBP is likely to enter a period of revaluation in response to the shifting geopolitical atmosphere.
England's Role In Brexit
Featuring the largest voting base of any country in the U.K., England was the deciding factor in the outcome of the Brexit vote.
In England alone, more than 15 million ballots were cast for "Leave." The total amounted to almost seven times the number of "Leave" votes in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales combined. The 53.4% to 46.6% tally in England was a margin of almost two million votes, and it ensured the overall passage of the Brexit referendum.
No matter which side of the membership debate sitting British leadership has supported, preservation of the GBP as an autonomous currency has been of paramount importance. After sustaining the shock of Black Wednesday in September 1992, the U.K. abruptly exited the European Monetary System (ERM). Financial historians commonly cite Black Wednesday and England's desire to insulate the GBP as being a root of the U.K.'s Brexit movement.
Brexit Negotiations And Challenges For The GBP
The June 2016 vote for Brexit was the initial step in turning a U.K. secession from the EU a reality. From that time until March 2019, diplomats from both sides were commissioned with the task of outlining acceptable terms for the "divorce." Among others, the key issues for resolution were financial compensation made to the EU, the standing of U.K./EU citizenship rights and securing the Northern Ireland border. In addition, provisions were required to further smooth the post-Brexit transition.
Over the course of the Brexit process, several key events served as stimuli for volatility facing the GBP. As each event came to pass, traders and investors addressed the British pound sterling from many unique vantage points. The result was a spike in participation that fostered considerable pricing fluctuations in the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.
The following are the primary events of the Brexit proceedings and their subsequent impact upon GBP valuations:
June 2016: Vote For Brexit
The U.K.'s vote for Brexit came as a surprise to political pundits and financial professionals alike.
With uncertainty surrounding eventual U.K. independence as well as the Brexit process itself, the GBP entered a period of extreme market turbulence. In the immediate aftermath of the 23 June 2016 vote, the GBP experienced heavy losses and fell to a 31-year low.
The pain for the GBP continued in the months after, highlighted by a 6% flash crash against the USD in October. Bearish sentiment toward the GBP became a prevailing theme over the next 12 months, with values against the USD losing 15% by June 2017.
March 2017: Article 50 Triggered
Article 50 is a clause in the Lisbon Treaty that defines the procedure for when an EU member nation terminates its affiliation with the union.
In March 2017, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May "invoked" Article 50, officially beginning the U.K.'s departure from the EU. In the runup to the March 2017 triggering of Article 50, the GBP experienced considerable pressure after a Parliamentary vote cleared the way for May's declaration. In the hours after Parliament rendered its decision, the GBP rapidly fell 0.7% against the USD.
Upon the decision to invoke Article 50 becoming official, the GBP posted moderate gains against the USD and Euro. Unlike the surprise vote for Brexit, the consensus among analysts suggested that the triggering of Article 50 was already priced into GBP valuations limiting downside volatility.
December 2017: EU/U.K. Divorce Deal Reached
On 8 December 2017, leaders from the EU and U.K. reached an agreement for the coming "divorce."
The deal outlined provisions for the Northern Ireland border, EU/U.K. citizenship and a financial settlement of £39 billion to be paid by the U.K. to the conglomerate. Upon public announcement of a deal being reached, the GBP rallied 0.9% against the USD and more than 1% vs the euro.
A working agreement for an orderly parting of ways between the U.K. and EU was viewed as positive news by currency traders. As much of the ambiguity surrounding the coming Brexit subsided, confidence in the future potential of the GBP returned.
October 2018: Divorce Deal Ratification
In order to secure the final terms of Brexit, the divorce deal must be ratified by several independent voting bodies.
Consenting majorities in both houses of U.K. Parliament as well as the EU council will be necessary. For the deal to be approved, at least 20 nations representing 65% of the union's population must vote in favour of the agreement.
November/December 2018: Crafting A Withdrawal Agreement
Throughout the second half of 2018, the crafting of a withdrawal or "divorce" deal between the EU and U.K. came to the forefront of Brexit proceedings. Following months of negotiations, P.M. Theresa May and the EU Council published a withdrawal agreement on 14 November 2018.
Upon the divorce deal's announcement, U.K. detractors cited that it heavily favoured EU interests. Critiqued aspects of the agreement included an exit from the single market economic structure and adoption of EU guidance on the Irish backstop issue facing Ireland/Northern Ireland.
Shortly after the EU endorsed May's deal on 25 November, opposition began mounting in the U.K. Parliament. Nearly one month later, on 17 December 2018, P.M. May announced that a "meaningful vote" on the agreement was to be held later in the month; eventually, the Parliamentary vote was delayed until January 2019.
January 2019: Rejection Of May's Divorce Deal
On 15 January 2019, the House of Commons officially rejected May's divorce deal by an overwhelming margin. Members voted down the plan by a tally of 432 to 202, the largest such margin against a sitting government in history. However, the vote came as no surprise to forex traders. For the 15 January 2019 session, the GBP lost a modest 0.01% vs the USD while rallying by 0.46% against the euro.
Political fallout from Parliament's denial of the divorce deal proved severe, highlighted led by Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn tabling a motion of "no confidence" against the U.K. government. Corbyn's submission brought the possibilities of a new Brexit referendum, snap election or delay of the scheduled 29 March 2019 Brexit Day. Ultimately, all three events eventually came to pass over the course of 2019.
March-May 2019: Brexit Delay, Indicative Votes, May Resigns
On the 29 March 2019 Brexit Day, an amended divorce deal put forth by the U.K. government was defeated by a second Parliamentary meaningful vote. Following hours of debate, the House of Commons voted 344 to 286 to reject the government's deal with the EU.
Following the second meaningful vote's outcome, Parliament held a collection of "indicative votes" during the week of 1 April 2019. These motions were designed to bring a House of Commons majority-supported divorce proposal to the table. On the heels of voracious debate, none of the indicative votes gained Parliamentary approval. Subsequently, an emergency EU Summit was held on 10 April 2019, where a Brexit Day extension was granted until 31 October 2019.
Unfortunately for sitting U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, failure to pass an acceptable EU/U.K. divorce deal led to dwindling political support. In reaction to the strife, May announced resignation as Conservative leader on 24 May 2019. May's departure set the stage for a Conservative Party leadership contest, led by MPs Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.
June 2019-Jan. 2020: Johnson Elected, Brexit Day Delayed, General Election Held
Upon May exiting the Prime Ministership, a six-week Conservative leadership contest was held. Boris Johnson turned out to be the easy victor, securing 66.4% of cast votes. Johnson entered office on promises of delivering Brexit to the people of the U.K. Statements from a 24 June 2019 acceptance speech summed up Johnson's stance toward Brexit: "I will take personal responsibility for the change I want to see...never mind the backstop, the buck stops here."
Johnson's first months as P.M. were filled with controversy, featuring a suspension of Parliament and the 31 October 2019 Brexit Day being postponed until 31 January 2020. Given deep political divisions and growing opposition to Conservative government leadership, Johnson called for a December 2019 snap election. The election was to settle differences and provide a clear path forward for the U.K.'s government.
The result of the snap election was a decisive victory by Johnson over Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. A Conservative majority ensued over Labour by a count of 364 to 203―the largest such margin since 1987.
The decisive Conservative victory fostered the U.K.'s exit from the EU on 31 January 2020. Dubbed "Brexit Day III," the U.K. finally exited the EU after more than 3.5-year-long debate and leadership upheavals. Accordingly, the Brexit transition period was scheduled to end on 31 December 2020.
GBP Volatility And The Implementation Period
Throughout the Brexit process, the GBP has faced periodic volatility in conjunction with important events. In order to limit the economic fallout on both sides following Brexit Day, guidelines for an orderly transition have been put into place.
Known as the "implementation period," the 21 months between 29 March 2019 and 31 December 2020 are meant to act as a buffer against economic and social chaos. The plan for this period include several provisions designed to smooth the changeover:
- EU/U.K. citizens will enjoy the same rights and immigration status as before Brexit.
- The U.K. will be able to sign and ratify its own treaties.
- Existing trade deals between the U.K. and other countries will be honoured.
- U.K. will remain a part of the Common Fisheries Policy.
To avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland will stay in parts of the single market and customs union.
Many view the implementation period as simply being an extension of U.K. membership in the EU. However, the ability for the U.K. to negotiate its own treaties opens the door for new economic partnerships. This sentiment was echoed by the GBP shortly after the Brexit transition deal being announced. Significant rallies against the euro (+0.51%) and USD (+0.61%) were observed after the agreement became public in March 2018.
However, the GBP struggled to sustain marketshare throughout the tumult of 2018. For the year, the GBP lost 1.8% against the USD and 1.1% vs the euro. Nonetheless, the pound sterling rebounded in 2019 against the majors. During 2019, the GBP gained more than 4% versus the USD and greater than 6% compared to the euro.
The Brexit process has posed many unforeseen challenges to the British pound sterling, and enhanced periodic volatilities have been observed surrounding key diplomatic and political events. From the massive losses taken in the hours after the surprise vote for Brexit, to a gradual recovery due to subsiding uncertainty, the GBP has undergone numerous fundamental transformations.
While the ultimate end to the Brexit saga remains to be seen, many currency market participants are promoting an optimistic tone toward the GBP.
Following a strong 2017 where the GBP gained 9.5% against the USD and 4.3% against the euro, investors were reassured of the pound's global standing.
Of course, economic growth in the U.K. and Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decisions will ultimately determine the GBP's value in a post-Brexit Europe.
This article was last updated on 30th July 2020.