Daily Market Bulletin – 2 March 2022

Market Developments

Investors are edgy following yesterday's new risk-off wave, as they continue to monitor the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has entered its seventh day.

Russian news agency TASS reported that Ukraine and Russia are expected to hold another round of negotiations today, after Monday's talks ended with no major breakthrough. [1]

US President Biden delivered his first State of the Union address, announcing that he will be closing off US airspace to all Russian flights and saying that "Putin's latest attack on Ukraine was premeditated and unprovoked". [2]

Over the last few days we have seen a series of major western companies cutting ties with Russia. ExxonMobil joined BP and Shell, announcing that it will discontinue its operation of the Shakalin-1 project in Russia and will make no new investments in the country. .

Apple halted all product sales in Russia and limited services such as Apple Pay and Apple Maps, as reported by the BBC [4], while Ford is suspending its limited operations in Russia [5].

The US Department of Energy announced it plans a 30-million-barrel sale today, as part of a coordinated of the International Energy Agency for the release of 60 million barrels of oil from member-countries' emergency reserves [6]. The move has not managed to stop the rally in oil prices.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Australia posted solid growth figures today, since Q4 GDP rose 3.4% quarter-over-quarter, from -1.9% prior.

Main Asia-Pacific stock markets were mostly cautious and European futures are also pressured. In the FX space, he JPY Basket is soft, whereas the US Dollar is upbeat.

Instruments Snapshot

EUR/USD is on the back foot and in danger of fresh 2022 lows, as it retests 1.1100.

GBP/USD extends losses and threatens this year's lows (1.3272).

USD/JPY rebounds above 115.00, following its poor weekly start.

USD/CAD is mixed as it covers earlier losses, capped by 1.2750.

AUD/USD is soft as it erases gains from the solid start to the day.

NZD/USD trades mixed as it also faces pressure, testing 0.6750.

GER30 is on the defensive breaching 13,400.

US30 faces renewed selling pressure, testing 33,200.

USOIL extends gains to 8+ year highs and probes 110.00, after Tuesday's rally.

XAU/USD is tepid below 1,940.

Economic Calendar Picks (GMT)

Market participants will be closely watching Mr Powell's testimony in the US Congress (15:00), for more insights regarding the Fed's tightening path.

The Bank of Canada hands down its monetary policy decision at 15:00. The BoC had concluded its asset purchases last year and had hinted at rate hikes, but has not done this so far. So markets will be looking if it is ready to hike rates now.

From Eurozone, we expect the preliminary CPI Inflation figures for February (10:00). Final CPI in January had increased 5.1% year-over-year.

OPEC and allies including Russia (OPEC+) meet today, to decide if they will stick to output plan and add another 400K barrels/day next month.

See the economic calendar here.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 02 Mar 2022 https://tass.com/politics/1414163

2

Retrieved 02 Mar 2022 https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2022/0301_ExxonMobil-to-discontinue-operations-at-Sakhalin-1_make-no-new-investments-in-Russia

4

Retrieved 02 Mar 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60579641

5

Retrieved 02 Mar 2022 https://twitter.com/jimfarley98/status/1498766710631014409

6

Retrieved 06 Dec 2022 https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-emergency-sale-30-million-barrels-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve

Disclosure

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

${getInstrumentData.name} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}

${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}