Indices

The US index is subdued, as Friday’s robust jobs report raises the bar for rate cuts by the Fed and casts some doubt over aggressive market expectations

There is a relationship between the 10-year real rate and the SPX500. The correlation coefficient between the two is a robust -87%. I.e. they generally travel together but in opposite directions. This makes sense given the time value of money of the SPX500, where a lower real rate will tend to support the stock market.

The Fed maintained rates at 5.5% and kept more hikes on the table, but the updated projection imply at least three cuts in 2024, sending NAS100 close to new record highs

The Fed, yesterday, held the policy rate steady at 5.25-5.5%, which was largely expected. However, it did surprise with a dovish tone maintaining that growth “has slowed” and “inflation has eased.” The dot plot showed an extra cut for 2024, now numbering 75bps as opposed to 50bps as signalled in the September update. Moreover, the final hike as per September was omitted so the Fed funds rate is now 4.6%…

The index maintains its upside bias as today’s data showed another moderation in wage growth, but looks to Thursday’s policy decision by the central bank of England

China’s inflation contacted at the fastest pace in three years despite Beijing’s efforts to support domestic consumption, leading HKG33 to new 2023 lows

In the first half of November, the GER30’s RSI broke above the green downsloping green trendline at 1. This suggested that positive momentum was expanding. This was confirmed by the index crossing above its black 30-week EMA and the EMA’s direction shifting upwards at 2. These are regarded as positive developments and the longer that the weekly RSI maintains above 50, the greater the underlying momentum support for the GER30.…

HKG33 faces pressure in a mixed month, after today’s Manufacturing PMI showed further contraction, highlighting China’s fragile economic state

The SPX monthly chart has charted a higher trough (HT) followed by a higher peak (HP). This denotes that the SPX500’s primary trend is an uptrend. With only 3 days left until the end of the month, the SPX 500 is up over 8.8% for November. This has resulted in a large blue monthly candle (candle 1). Candle 2 is a bullish reference candle i.e. it has the lowest low…

The index is cautious after the UK Chancellor’s “Autumn Statement for Growth”, which could make the BoE’s struggle to control inflation harder

The tech-heavy index dropped yesterday after the Fed’s minutes showed no discussion around rate cuts, but finds support today, boosted by another blowout quarter by AI facilitator Nvidia