Page 31 of 61
Fed officials start preparing market for further rate hikes.
The RBA delivered its fourth straight rate hike, but changed its rhetoric in a way that could be a precursor of more moderate moves ahead, sending AUD/USD lower
The 10-yr real rate is just 7bps from 0 (black line chart), and the 5-yr is 7bps below 0 (red line chart). Given that interest rates are included in the denominator of the time value of money, this deterioration is supportive of present values. I.e. it is acting against the whims and desires of the Fed's stated intention of controlling inflation.
The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and cancelled forward guidance. GDP indicates a technical recession, and US inflation is still ticking at the highest level in 40 years. The Eurozone shows resilience but with savage inflation on its side of the pond. This week the BoE and RBA will hike rates, but there is scope for surprises. NFP Friday has a forecast of 250K jobs created in July. Yet, the…
The US economy posted second back-to-back quarterly negative GDP, according to the preliminary data that were just released, against expectations for marginal growth
The US central bank delivered another 75 basis point rate increase on Wednesday, but offered no guidance, while reiterating its commitment to bring inflation down and brushing off recession fears
The central bank raised rates for the first time in eleven years today, opting for a bolder 50 basis points, against its previous forwards guidance for a more modest move
The household sector is showing weakness from numerous economic indicators.
Inflation is still in focus as the US printed at 9.1% - the fastest pace since 1981. Bank of Canada surprises with 100bps to front load hikes due to inflationary concerns. Waller and Bullard talk down hike expectation to 75bps from 100bps. Fed funds rate has 75bps at 70% for 27 July hike. Bank earnings disappoint; this week, NFLX and Tesla kick off the tech side. Housing data is in…
Retail sales increase on a nominal basis but slow on a real basis.
US CPI Inflation hit new four decade high in June, as Wednesday’s data showed, sparking aggressive market expectations for another outsized move on rates by the US central bank
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.