Forex

The pair heads towards its best month of the year, but faces difficulties this week, as markets contemplate China’s Covid-19 situation and poor PMIs, ahead of key US economic data

The pair concluded yesterday’s volatile session in the red, despite setting five-month highs, but finds support today

The hourly chart on the right has developed bullishly. In addition, the trend following EMAs have crossed bullishly, as has the momentum-based stochastic (black ellipses). If the stochastic makes its way to the 80+ region and holds, bullish momentum will be underlying. This, in turn, will align the short-term traders with the daily positions.

Market sentiment is downbeat at the start of the week, mostly due to renewed China pandemic woes, sending the pair lower

The USDOLLAR gapped on the open as protests out of China weighed on sentiment. There is a risk of escalation and crackdown. However, the broader market pattern is still suggestive of a weaker dollar.

With the help of RBNZ’s recent record hike, the pair marches towards its sixth straight profitable week and the best streak in two years

Since the week starting Monday, 17 October (black dashed vertical), the US 10-year real rate has been drifting lower (blue arrow top chart). An appreciation in the EURUSD (red arrow bottom chart) accompanies this.

Yesterday’s accounts from the last US Fed policy meeting, showed that officials are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes, which weighed on the greenback and sent the pair higher

The Aussie takes advantage of the greenback’s weakness and the latest commentary form the head of the RBA, to move higher today, after its poor weekly start

The pair surged more than 1.5% on Monday entering its second straight positive week, as it reacts from the worst weekly performance in two-decades, earlier in the month

The pair comes from its first negative week since mid-October and enters its third straight losing day, as markets continue to evaluate the policy path by the two central banks