AUD/USD Downbeat in the Aftermath of RBA’s Hold, Awaits US NFPs

  • AUDUSD
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AUD/USD Analysis

The pair started the week on the offensive, as the surprise decision by a series of OPEC countries to cut oil production sent prices higher [1], boosting commodity currencies. The rally however proved short-lived, since it was contained by 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2023 high/low drop and the outcome of RBA's policy meeting sent it lower on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 3.6%, after ten consecutive rate hikes, even though it did not close the door to further tightening [2]. A day later, Governor Lowe noted that the decision to hold rates "does not imply" that increases are over. [3]

Moreover, broader sentiment has deteriorated over the last couple of days, as a series of disappointing US jobs data have sparked fresh dears of recession. Now markets await today's weekly jobless claims and mainly Friday's NFPs that can affect the trajectory of the pair.

The three-day slide puts AUD/USD in a precarious position and the rejection of aforementioned 38.2% Fibonacci creates scope for fresh 2023 lows (0.6563). However, a fresh catalyst may be required for such outcome that would bring 0.6433 in the spotlight.

On the other hand, elevated oil prices, the fact that the RBA has left the door open to more tightening market pricing for cuts by the Feed could help contain the fall. A recovery effort and another crack at 0.6790 cannot be ruled out, but the upside looks unfriendly and we struggle to see sustained strength under current conditions.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 06 Apr 2023 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7120.htm

2

Retrieved 06 Apr 2023 https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-08.html

3

Retrieved 23 Jul 2024 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html

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