Thoughtful insights and approachable analysis.
- Dell has surged more than 250% this year, and tonight's earnings could decide whether the AI-fuelled rally has another leg higher or finally runs out of steam.
- Broadcom has fallen 25% from its June high, and tomorrow's earnings could decide whether explosive AI growth can reignite the rally or send the shares back under pressure.
- Snowflake is up 50% this year, and tomorrow's earnings could decide whether AI-fuelled growth and improving momentum ignite the next leg higher.

Quick Market Overview

US stocks ended August with solid gains despite a weaker final session, with the SPX500 and NAS100 posting their best August performances since 2021. The rally was helped by renewed buying in AI-related shares, but September brings a tougher seasonal backdrop and a heavy economic calendar. Attention now turns to Friday's jobs report and further inflation data ahead of the Fed's September meeting, with markets assigning a high chance to another rate increase.

General Equity Market Health (SPX500)

The SPX500 has shifted into a sideways consolidation phase after pulling back from its recent all-time high near 7,800, with price now clustering around its short-term moving averages as they begin to flatten. Momentum has cooled rather than collapsed, with the RSI back near the neutral 50 level after unwinding an overbought reading. Holding above 50 would be constructive and could provide a platform for another push higher, while a decisive break below it would suggest sellers are gaining control. On price, 7,650 remains the key near-term support level; as long as this holds, the consolidation can be viewed as digestion of the previous rally rather than the start of a deeper correction. A convincing move through the upper end of the current range around 7,720-7,750 would strengthen the case for another test of the all-time high, whereas a break below 7,650 would weaken the technical picture and put the previous breakout area around 7,600 back into focus. For now, the market is essentially coiling beneath its highs, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control and the eventual break from this increasingly tight range likely to determine the next directional move.

Market participants are balancing strong corporate earnings with a more challenging macro backdrop. Q2 results remain an important source of support, with 86% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates and earnings growth staying robust even after excluding the unusually large investment gains that boosted Alphabet and Amazon. At the same time, the index has already gained 2.8% in August and 12% this year, leaving expectations elevated as the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.8%, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and investors await key employment and inflation data ahead of the 15–16 September Fed meeting. Renewed US-Iran tensions and UKOil crude above $90 add to the uncertainty, while September has historically been the SPX500's weakest month. This helps explain the current technical consolidation, with strong earnings encouraging investors to buy weakness while higher yields, persistent inflation and geopolitical risk limit enthusiasm for chasing the market through its recent highs.

Potential Trade Setups

Three major technology names are approaching potentially decisive catalysts. Dell, Broadcom and Snowflake each offer different technical setups, but all are tied closely to the durability of the AI investment cycle. Dell is consolidating after an extraordinary rally, Broadcom is attempting to recover from a sizeable correction, while Snowflake is showing renewed bullish momentum near its highs. With earnings set to put AI demand, margins and forward guidance firmly under the spotlight, the coming sessions could determine whether these stocks break higher or recent technical warning signs take control.

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL.us)

Technical Analysis
Dell's spectacular 2026 advance has clearly lost some momentum, but the technical picture remains constructive rather than outright bearish. After peaking near $500, the shares corrected sharply before finding support around the $435 to $440 area and have since recovered towards $456. Encouragingly, the RSI has turned higher and is holding above the neutral 50 level, suggesting buyers are beginning to regain some control. The next important signal will come from the short-term EMAs, which are currently flattening and converging. If they begin to turn higher with clearer angle and separation, it would indicate that upside momentum is rebuilding and strengthen the case for another move towards the recent $470 area and potentially the $500 high. For now, however, Dell appears to be consolidating after an extraordinary run, with $470 the first meaningful hurdle. A break above that resistance would improve the bullish setup.

Caveat
If the RSI breaks below 50 and remains there, it would signal a deterioration in momentum and could put renewed pressure on Dell's share price.

Fundamental Perspective
Dell's results after the US close today will be less about delivering another strong quarter and more about whether the company can justify the extraordinary expectations now reflected in its share price. Wall Street expects roughly $45 billion of revenue and adjusted EPS of around $4.91, with AI infrastructure once again driving much of the growth. The key numbers will be AI server orders, revenue, backlog and pipeline, particularly after Dell exited Q1 with a record $51.3 billion backlog and raised its FY27 AI server revenue forecast to $60 billion. Investors will also be looking for another increase in that outlook, especially with consensus expectations already running above company guidance. Profitability will be just as important as growth, as the increasing mix of AI servers puts pressure on gross-margin rates while tight memory supply and component costs remain potential headwinds. Beyond AI, the strength of Dell's commercial PC refresh and storage demand will provide clues about how broad-based growth remains. With the shares up more than 250% this year, the hurdle is exceptionally high, meaning a simple earnings beat may not be enough. Strong AI orders, resilient margins and higher forward guidance would strengthen the bull case, while any sign that AI growth is slowing or becoming less profitable could put the shares under pressure.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.us)

Technical Analysis
Broadcom's technical picture remains cautious despite a modest rebound from its August lows. After surging towards $500 in June, the shares have fallen by close to 25% and are now up only around 4% for 2026, leaving the stock well below its former highs. Momentum remains subdued, with the RSI still below the neutral 50 level, although its recovery from near-oversold territory suggests that selling pressure has eased. The short-term EMAs remain in a bearish formation, with the faster average below the slower one, but the gap is beginning to narrow as price stabilises. A sustained move above the $372 to $375 area, accompanied by the RSI reclaiming 50 and the EMAs turning higher towards a bullish crossover, would be an encouraging sign that momentum is rebuilding. Until then, the recent bounce looks more like an attempt to establish a base than the start of a confirmed new uptrend. A move through roughly $385 would provide stronger evidence that buyers are regaining control.

Caveat
On the downside, the $355 to $360 area is an important support zone, and a break below it would risk reopening the decline.

Fundamental Perspective
Broadcom's results after the US close tomorrow will test whether the company can rebuild confidence in an AI business that is still growing at extraordinary speed. Wall Street expects about $29.5 billion of revenue and adjusted EPS of $3.24, but the key figure will be AI semiconductor revenue, which Broadcom expects to reach $16 billion, up more than 200% year on year. Attention will then turn to the outlook, particularly whether CEO Hock Tan offers stronger signals around the company's forecast for more than $100 billion of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027. That follows a previous quarter in which revenue and the AI outlook came in slightly below expectations and management reiterated rather than raised its long-term target, contributing to a sharp sell-off. Investors will also watch Broadcom's position in custom silicon after Google expanded its supplier base through a major deal with Marvell, as well as progress with OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic and the fast-growing AI networking business. Infrastructure Software remains an important second growth engine, with Q3 revenue expected to rise 31% to about $8.9 billion. With the shares already around 25% below their June high, the setup is finely balanced. A strong quarter and convincing evidence that AI demand can exceed existing 2027 expectations could revive the rally, while merely meeting the $16 billion AI target without a stronger forward outlook may not be enough.

Snowflake (SNOW.us)

Technical Analysis
Snowflake has been one of the stronger performers of 2026, up around 50% for the year, with the rally accelerating dramatically from June before settling into a period of consolidation near its highs. Encouragingly, momentum is beginning to strengthen again. The short-term EMAs have just crossed bullishly, while the RSI has recovered above the neutral 50 level, suggesting buyers are regaining control after the late-August pullback. The next confirmation would be for the EMAs to develop greater upward angle and separation, signalling that a fresh trend is taking hold rather than another short-lived bounce. Price is now pressing into the $330 to $340 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped the shares since early August. A convincing break above $340 would therefore be technically significant and could open the door to another leg higher. For now, the picture remains constructive, particularly while the RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the rising averages.

Caveat
A reversal below the $320 area would weaken the emerging bullish setup, while an RSI break below 50 that holds would signal deteriorating momentum and could put renewed pressure on Snowflake's share price.

Fundamental Perspective
Snowflake's results tomorrow will show whether it can sustain the growth expectations behind a share price up roughly 50% this year. Wall Street expects about $1.48 billion of revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.45, while Snowflake has guided to $1.415 billion to $1.420 billion of product revenue, representing 30% growth. More important than EPS will be customer consumption and whether expanding AI workloads continue to accelerate the core platform. In Q1, RPO (remaining performance obligations) reached $9.21 billion, up 38% year on year, net revenue retention improved to 126% and customers generating more than $1 million of trailing product revenue rose 29% to 779. Guidance will be crucial, with Snowflake currently expecting $5.84 billion of FY2027 product revenue, 31% growth, a 13.5% non-GAAP operating margin and a 23% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. A further revenue upgrade alongside resilient or higher margin guidance would strengthen the case that AI is driving both growth and profitability. Strong consumption, accelerating AI adoption and higher full-year guidance could extend the rally, while softer consumption or outlook commentary could leave the shares vulnerable after such a strong run.

Hot News, Cold Logic

US stocks continue to defy higher bond yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, supported by strong earnings, resilient economic growth and a broader rally beyond technology. Investors are betting that modest rate increases could restore the Fed's inflation credibility without derailing the economy, potentially easing longer-term yields. However, elevated valuations, rising corporate debt and softer consumer and labour trends remain important risks as markets head into September.

Final Thought

September begins with the bull market facing a more difficult test. The AI earnings story remains compelling, but renewed Middle East tensions, oil above $90 and a sharp rise in global bond yields are raising the cost of capital and putting inflation firmly back in focus. Strong profits continue to support the broader advance, but with the interest-rate outlook becoming less forgiving, further gains are likely to depend increasingly on earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations.