Thoughtful insights and approachable analysis.

• A potential AI comeback story as Intel's (INTC.us) foundry ambitions receive a major boost as Google's reported chip order signals growing confidence in its future.
• Micron (MU.us) sits at the centre of the AI memory revolution, with booming HBM demand and limited supply creating a compelling long-term growth opportunity.
• Alphabet's (GOOG.us) dominant digital ecosystem, AI investments, and emerging opportunities in cloud and autonomous driving create a compelling long-term growth story.

Quick Market Overview

Technology stocks quickly recovered from their sharp selloff, suggesting investors still view the recent weakness as a pause rather than the end of the AI-driven rally. After the Nasdaq Composite suffered its largest one-day point decline on record, buyers returned, with the index gaining 0.9% and the S&P 500 rising 0.3%. The pullback followed a huge run in semiconductor stocks, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up around 90% in 2026, as investors took profits amid AI valuation concerns and renewed rate worries. However, strong technology earnings continue to support the market, with investors betting that rising profits from the AI boom can keep driving stocks higher.

General Equity Market Health (SPX500)

There was a sharp pullback on Friday, pushing the SPX500 back toward key support around the 7,340 level. Price has stabilised for now, but this area remains important to watch. The RSI has slipped below 50, suggesting momentum has weakened. If it remains below this level, the risk of a break below support increases. However, a move back above 50 would suggest the recent weakness was simply a pullback within the broader uptrend.

The SPX500 remains supported by strong corporate earnings and continued optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence investment cycle. However, Friday's sharp pullback highlighted the market's sensitivity to elevated valuations, with stronger economic data (nonfarm payrolls) raising concerns that interest rates may remain restrictive for longer.

While AI-related companies continue to drive earnings growth, the narrow nature of the rally means expectations remain high. The recent weakness could still prove to be healthy profit-taking within the broader uptrend, but upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve guidance will be important in determining whether buyers return or if the correction has further to run.

Potential Trade Setups

Following the recent market pullback, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the opportunity created by lower prices, saying, "whatever happened to the stock market, you should be very happy because now you can buy at a discount." However, a cheaper price alone does not confirm a buying opportunity. We will continue to monitor momentum closely, with RSI levels playing a key role in identifying potential entries. Stocks reclaiming and holding above the 50 level would suggest improving momentum, while those remaining below 50 may stay under pressure despite strong long-term fundamentals.

Intel (INTC.us)

Technical Analysis
- After an exceptionally strong April and May, Intel has experienced a moderate pullback in June.
- A break above the RSI's downward-sloping trendline, followed by a move back above 50, would be a positive technical development.
- The EMAs also remain an important area to monitor (blue ellipse).
- A positive crossover, followed by increasing angle and separation, would suggest that buyers are stepping in and supporting the dip.

Caveat
- If the RSI remains below 50, it would suggest momentum is still weak and Intel may remain under pressure following its strong two-month rally.

Fundamental Perspective
Intel's investment case has improved as investors look for evidence that its turnaround strategy is gaining traction. A major positive development has been reports that Google ordered more than three million AI-focused TPUs from Intel for 2028 production, providing an important vote of confidence in Intel's foundry ambitions.

The broader AI infrastructure boom also creates an opportunity as major technology companies look to diversify their semiconductor supply chains. However, Intel still needs to prove it can consistently execute and compete with established manufacturing leaders. If successful, growing AI demand and renewed interest in its foundry capabilities could support the next stage of its recovery story.

Micron Technoogy Inc (MU.us)

Technical Analysis
- Micron has formed a higher trough followed by a higher peak.
- This places the share in a defined technical uptrend.
- The focus now shifts to whether the next higher trough in the sequence can develop.
- If successful, this could provide the foundation for another higher peak and a continuation of the current uptrend.
- The RSI remains above 50, highlighting positive underlying momentum.
- As long as the RSI holds above this level, the probability of the uptrend continuing remains favourable.

Caveat
- If the RSI breaks below 50 and remains there, momentum would weaken and Micron could come under renewed pressure, potentially disrupting the current uptrend.

Fundamental Perspective
Micron's investment case continues to strengthen as the company benefits from the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical component used in advanced AI systems, remains extremely strong, with Micron's 2026 HBM supply reportedly already committed.

As AI data centres expand, limited advanced memory capacity is supporting stronger pricing power and improving the outlook for margins. While semiconductor volatility remains a risk, the long-term AI memory cycle could remain a powerful growth driver. If Micron continues executing successfully, rising demand for AI infrastructure could provide a strong foundation for the next stage of its growth story.

Alphabet Inc. - Class C (GOOG.us)

Technical Analysis
- GOOG has pulled back after reaching its all-time high in May.
- However, this could represent a potential dip within the broader uptrend.
- In this regard, the RSI remains a key indicator to monitor.
- A break above the RSI's downward-sloping trendline would be a constructive development.
- A move back above 50 would suggest that underlying momentum is turning positive again.
- A positive EMA crossover would provide further evidence that buyers are returning.
- However, price also needs to break above its downward-sloping trendline to signal a potential continuation of the uptrend.

Caveat
- If the RSI fails to reclaim the 50 level, this would be a negative development and suggest that GOOG's share price may remain under pressure until momentum improves.

Fundamental Analysis
GOOG's investment case remains attractive as the company combines its dominant search and advertising ecosystem with significant growth opportunities across artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and autonomous driving.

The company continues to aggressively invest in AI infrastructure, supporting products such as Gemini and Google Cloud as it looks to strengthen its position in the next phase of AI adoption. While rising AI investment costs remain a key risk, Alphabet's strong cash generation and established platforms provide the financial flexibility needed to compete in the AI race.

Beyond AI, Waymo offers another potential long-term growth driver as autonomous vehicle technology continues to develop. If Alphabet can successfully convert its AI investments into future revenue streams, the recent pullback could represent an attractive opportunity within a longer-term growth story.

Hot News, Cold Logic

The upcoming SpaceX IPO highlights the huge investor appetite for artificial intelligence and next-generation technology companies, but history suggests caution after the initial excitement. With SpaceX potentially valued near $1.8 trillion, investors will need to decide whether future growth in rockets, satellites, and AI infrastructure can justify the premium valuation. The biggest risk is that much of the upside has already been captured in private markets, leaving public investors expecting flawless execution from one of the world's most ambitious companies.

Final Thought

Markets continue to prove resilient, with investors returning to AI and technology leaders while easing oil prices offer relief from recent geopolitical shocks. Yet with valuations stretched, bond yields elevated and expectations increasingly demanding, this remains a market powered by optimism but tested by reality, where the next stage of the bull market will depend on earnings proving that today's confidence is justified.