Core CPI declines but gives up some steepness
Core inflation dropped to 5.6% y/y, down from the previous print of 5.7% y/y. The decline gives way gradient (blue circle) and missed the consensus of 5.5% y/y. It is moving in the right direction.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Core inflation dropped to 5.6% y/y, down from the previous print of 5.7% y/y. The decline gives way gradient (blue circle) and missed the consensus of 5.5% y/y. It is moving in the right direction.
FXCM's 2023 outlook webinar, hosted by senior market specialists Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.
The market has been resilient despite the poor showing. This is telling. Dow Theory maintains that a bull market has three phases. The first phase, accumulation, sees smart money recognising the current poor conditions, but positioning for the turn up. Bids increase as selling volumes diminish. There is a feeling of pessimism. However, prices have stopped going down. This matches with current resiliency.
A surprise announcement on Friday saw Japanese Prime Minister Kishida appoint Kazuo Ueda as the new BoJ governor. Ueda is a hawk relative to Mosayoshi Amamiya, the current deputy governor. However, his current leaning will probably have a dovish tilt with monetary policy shifting slowly.
The markets have likely been running on the blowout non-farm employment change (NFP) released on 3rd Feb (orange dashed vertical), over any Fed communication. This suggests a heavy reliance on data and tomorrow we get the CPI at 1:30 pm GMT.
The SPX500 charted a higher trough and a higher peak on its weekly time frame. This is an uptrend. Its stochastic is in its upper quintile (green rectangle), suggesting bullish momentum. The longer time frame is meaningful; the index’s primary trend is positive.
Russia announced it is cutting its oil production by 500,00 bpd in March. This is in response to the West imposing price caps on Russian oil and related products.
The fear index (weekly chart) suggests the market is too complacent. It has flashed a potential pullback.
The US30 chart is on the cusp of moving back into its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. A cross into this region is positive.
The 517K non-farm payroll surprised the market. This beat the most bullish forecasts. However, not all may be as it seems.
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