Russell Shor

The hourly stochastic has made its way to its upper quintile. The longer it maintains this position, the better the chances of further USDOLLAR price appreciation.

The current housing starts index is weak. It is below its 3-month moving average and heading down. Its RSI is on the bearish side of 50.

FXCM senior market specialist, Russ and Nik, discuss several key events for the week. Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate (Tues) and House (Wed). The market will be eager to hear any hints on rate hikes or the terminal rate. This Friday the jobs data for February will be released. Last data point was a big surprise higher and the market will look here in anticipation.…

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket’s daily chart continues to trade in its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. The hourly chart is also showing positive developments. Its trend following EMAs and momentum based- stochastic have crossed. Development of angle and separation by the EMAs and movement by the stochastic into the 80+ area (blue arrow) will be a bullish development.

China has set a slower-than expected GDP growth target of 5% for this year. The target for last year was 5.5%, but actual GDP growth was only 3%, the second slowest since the 1970s, the Associated Press reported.

The EURUSD daily candlestick chart is positioned in its weak channel, between the lower blue and red bands. It was pushed back into the soft area after moving out.

Regarding the weekly time frame, the NAS100 has charted a higher trough, followed by a higher peak. This is an uptrend. The index has pulled back over the past weeks but now finds itself at resistance turned support.

ISM Manufacturing data was released yesterday, printing at 47.7. A value under 50 shows contraction, whilst values above 50 are expansionary. There is concern over one component of the data - ISM Manufacturing Prices. This ticked higher at 51.3. This is a big jump from the previous 44.5 and is much higher than the 45.5 expected.

Copper has charted a series of higher troughs (HT), followed by higher peaks (HP). This puts the base metal into uptrend. Copper has found support at the 50% retracement, and may chart the next higher trough (HT?) in the series.

Overnight, Australian CPI y/y showed signs of moderation, printing at 7.4%, lower than the expected 8.1% and the previous 8.4%. GDP was also softer at 0.5% q/q - 0.8% q/q was expected. After the release, the spread between the AU and US 2-year notes declined (red rectangle). This suggests that the RBA is less hawkish than the Fed. Markets still expects the RBA to lift rates next week, even if…

FXCM’s CHN50 basket is in uptrend. It has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. The current down-leg appears corrective, retracing to the previous up-leg’s 76.4% Fibonacci level. CHN50 could find support at this level and chart the next higher trough in the series. Its RSI remains on the bullish side of 50, but is near dropping below (black ellipse). The longer it stays above 50, the greater…