Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
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Introduction The GER30, FXCM's proxy for the DAX, is running rampant. It has charted an all-time high this week. Moreover, this is its sixth week of price appreciation. Of note, the index is up 9.9% since its 6 October low. This is is an astounding rate of change. It raises the question of just how long should we expect this to continue? In the near term, it would make sense…
UK core inflation printed at 3.4% y/y, higher than the 3.1% forecast. For the Euro, core came in at 2% y/y, less than the consensus of 2.1%. There is also very different communication from each's central bank. At the monetary policy report hearing on Monday, BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted to being "very uneasy' about inflation. Although the BoE did not raise rates at the last meeting, there were two…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous article, the NAS100 moved positively back into the daily chart's bullish area, between the lower blue and lower red bands. Moreover, the current daily RSI still has room to move before registering as overbought. Given this strength, the hourly trend-following indicators are in a bullish formation, with the shorter-term green EMA above the longer-term orange EMA. Our…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results The SPX500 reacted positively to yesterday's retail number, which beat consensus. Core Retail Sales came in at 1.7%, ahead of the 1% expected. The index was faded towards the market close and then traded down in the Asian session. However, SPX500 strength is maintained with the daily chart (left) in the bullish area between the upper blue and upper red bands.…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results The left chart shows the USDOLLAR daily time frame. It is in an area of strength - between the upper blue and upper red bands. We note that the daily RSI is trending toward overbought but is not there yet (green rectangle). The right chart shows the USDOLLAR hourly time frame. The buck reacted off of resistance at the R1 pivot.…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com Salesforce released its Q2 earnings on 25 August. This marks an important inflection point (dashed blue vertical) on the company's price chart. For most of 2021, the stock moved sideways, as did its volume (red dashed horizontal). The lower chart shows the OBV indicator, which shoots upwards, following the Q2 earnings release, as the price takes off. Past performance…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com In the monthly chart above we show the long term relative strength between the major financial markets post the pandemic lows (dashed blue vertical): 1. Stocks [represented by the S&P 500 (SPX)]. 2. Bonds [represented by the iShares 7-10 Treasury ETF (IEF)]. 3. Commodities [represented by the Thomson Reuters CRB Index (TRJEFFCRB)]. The top chart shows the relative strength…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Bitcoin has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This is the technical definition of an uptrend. Price is struggling at the resistance area around 64,000 (red shaded horizontal). To break through this level, bullish momentum must be maintained and the stochastic (blue line) helps in assessing if that momentum is present. The stochastic is a measure of price…
The UK's 3-month moving average of average earnings (compared with the same period last year) came in at 5.8%. This was higher than the consensus of 5.5%. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, also under the consensus forecast of 4.4%. The inflation numbers will be released tomorrow, and Friday will see retail sales. During yesterday's Monetary Policy Report Hearings, the BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, told MPs that he is "very…
In this article: 1. University of Michigan consumer survey misses consensus. 2. US consumers are gloomy. 3. Inflation is rampant. 4. The Fed may have to pivot on policy. Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the Univesity of Michigan was sobering. US consumers are hurting. Last month's print was 71.7, and 72.5 was the consensus for Friday's number - it came in at a paltry 66.8. Faced with the prospects…
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