USDOLLAR weakened following NFP, but holding ahead of inflation data
USDOLLAR holds up ahead of Thursday's inflation print.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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USDOLLAR holds up ahead of Thursday's inflation print.
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Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. government's long-term foreign-currency default rating from AAA to AA+. This change reflects concerns about the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, the increasing government debt burden, and governance issues compared to countries with higher ratings. Fitch also mentioned the repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions as contributing factors.
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Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have both charted 52-week highs. According to Dow Theory this is a promising outlook for a wider bull market. This strategy has a strong historical track record in identifying primary trends in stocks.
Last week I wrote how the GER30 was setting up to tackle its overhead resistance once again. The 16,300-16,400 levels were hit four times since mid-November 2021 and each time price was repelled. However, this time there are signs that the bulls may overpower the key level.
Core PCE came in at 4.1% y/y. This was lower than the 4.2% expected and lower than the previous print of 4.6%. This is the lowest annual rate since September 2021. On a monthly basis core PCE came in at 0.2%, which is 2.4% annualised.
The EURUSD’s sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish over the last two hours. The daily candle (still to complete) shows a long upper shadow. The high is where the bulls lost control to the bears. Since then, the bears have ripped price down, and EURUSD is now trading below its open.
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